GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s10584-019-02442-5
Projection of near-future climate change and agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia under RCP8.5
Amnuaylojaroen, Teerachai1,2,3; Chanvichit, Pavinee4
2019-07-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2019
卷号155期号:2页码:175-193
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Thailand
英文摘要

In order to plan for agricultural irrigation, the drought risk and amount of water needed for crops must be well studied. In this work, we apply the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Crop Water Need (CWN) using input data from a fine-resolution Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) to assess the risk of future agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia from 2020 to 2029. The NRCM was performed with resolutions of 60 and 10-km grid spacing for the present (1990-1999) and the future (2020-2029). The model employs initial and boundary conditions from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) for meteorological variables. Two simulations, present-day (1990-1999) and future (2020-2029), were conducted under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario. In general, the comparison between the NRCM predictions and observed data shows that the NRCM reasonably predicts precipitation and 2-m temperature with a high correlation of 0.89-0.98 and index of agreement (IOA) values ranging from 0.76 to 0.95. The future precipitation tends to decrease by (-1)-(1)mm/day, while the temperature will increase by up to 2-3 degrees C, which are favorable conditions for drought risk. Additionally, the SPI values between (-1.5) and 0 for both the dry and rainy seasons indicate a high possibility of drought events in the future. There seemed to be some evidence of drought risk in this region, but the calculation of CWN indicates that the region will remain relatively water rich for agriculture.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000476738100003
WOS关键词STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX ; PART I ; MODEL ; MOISTURE
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184428
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Phayao, Sch Energy & Environm, Dept Environm Sci, Phayao 56000, Thailand;
2.Univ Phayao, Sch Energy & Environm, Atmospher Pollut Unit, Phayao 56000, Thailand;
3.Univ Phayao, Sch Energy & Environm, Climate Change Res Unit, Phayao 56000, Thailand;
4.Univ Phayao, Sch Agr & Nat Resources, Dept Agr, Phayao 56000, Thailand
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Amnuaylojaroen, Teerachai,Chanvichit, Pavinee. Projection of near-future climate change and agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia under RCP8.5[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,155(2):175-193.
APA Amnuaylojaroen, Teerachai,&Chanvichit, Pavinee.(2019).Projection of near-future climate change and agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia under RCP8.5.CLIMATIC CHANGE,155(2),175-193.
MLA Amnuaylojaroen, Teerachai,et al."Projection of near-future climate change and agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia under RCP8.5".CLIMATIC CHANGE 155.2(2019):175-193.
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