Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02442-5 |
Projection of near-future climate change and agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia under RCP8.5 | |
Amnuaylojaroen, Teerachai1,2,3; Chanvichit, Pavinee4 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 155期号:2页码:175-193 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Thailand |
英文摘要 | In order to plan for agricultural irrigation, the drought risk and amount of water needed for crops must be well studied. In this work, we apply the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Crop Water Need (CWN) using input data from a fine-resolution Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) to assess the risk of future agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia from 2020 to 2029. The NRCM was performed with resolutions of 60 and 10-km grid spacing for the present (1990-1999) and the future (2020-2029). The model employs initial and boundary conditions from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) for meteorological variables. Two simulations, present-day (1990-1999) and future (2020-2029), were conducted under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario. In general, the comparison between the NRCM predictions and observed data shows that the NRCM reasonably predicts precipitation and 2-m temperature with a high correlation of 0.89-0.98 and index of agreement (IOA) values ranging from 0.76 to 0.95. The future precipitation tends to decrease by (-1)-(1)mm/day, while the temperature will increase by up to 2-3 degrees C, which are favorable conditions for drought risk. Additionally, the SPI values between (-1.5) and 0 for both the dry and rainy seasons indicate a high possibility of drought events in the future. There seemed to be some evidence of drought risk in this region, but the calculation of CWN indicates that the region will remain relatively water rich for agriculture. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000476738100003 |
WOS关键词 | STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX ; PART I ; MODEL ; MOISTURE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184428 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Phayao, Sch Energy & Environm, Dept Environm Sci, Phayao 56000, Thailand; 2.Univ Phayao, Sch Energy & Environm, Atmospher Pollut Unit, Phayao 56000, Thailand; 3.Univ Phayao, Sch Energy & Environm, Climate Change Res Unit, Phayao 56000, Thailand; 4.Univ Phayao, Sch Agr & Nat Resources, Dept Agr, Phayao 56000, Thailand |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Amnuaylojaroen, Teerachai,Chanvichit, Pavinee. Projection of near-future climate change and agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia under RCP8.5[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,155(2):175-193. |
APA | Amnuaylojaroen, Teerachai,&Chanvichit, Pavinee.(2019).Projection of near-future climate change and agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia under RCP8.5.CLIMATIC CHANGE,155(2),175-193. |
MLA | Amnuaylojaroen, Teerachai,et al."Projection of near-future climate change and agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia under RCP8.5".CLIMATIC CHANGE 155.2(2019):175-193. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论