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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04625-3 |
Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part1: establishing the relationship between errors at weather and climate time scales | |
Sexton, D. M. H.1; Karmalkar, A. V.1,2,3; Murphy, J. M.1; Williams, K. D.1; Boutle, I. A.1; Morcrette, C. J.1; Stirling, A. J.1; Vosper, S. B.1 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:989-1022 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; USA |
英文摘要 | The main aim of this two-part study is to use a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) to select plausible and diverse variants of a relatively expensive climate model for use in climate projections. In this first part, the extent to which climate biases develop at weather forecast timescales is assessed with two PPEs, which are based on 5-day forecasts and 10-year simulations with a relatively coarse resolution (N96) atmosphere-only model. Both ensembles share common parameter combinations and strong emergent relationships are found for a wide range of variables between the errors on two timescales. These relationships between the PPEs are demonstrated at several spatial scales from global (using mean square errors), to regional (using pattern correlations), and to individual grid boxes where a large fraction of them show positive correlations. The study confirms more robustly than in previous studies that investigating the errors on weather timescales provides an affordable way to identify and filter out model variants that perform poorly at short timescales and are likely to perform poorly at longer timescales too. The use of PPEs also provides additional information for model development, by identifying parameters and processes responsible for model errors at the two different timescales, and systematic errors that cannot be removed by any combination of parameter values. |
英文关键词 | Perturbed parameter ensembles Transpose AMIP Model development Sensitivity analysis Elicitation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000471722400058 |
WOS关键词 | OF-ATMOSPHERE RADIATION ; COMPUTER EXPERIMENTS ; PHYSICAL-PROPERTIES ; SOUTHERN-OCEAN ; ENSEMBLE ; BIASES ; UNCERTAINTY ; SENSITIVITY ; HADGEM1 ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184417 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Met Off, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England; 2.Univ Massachusetts, Northeast Climate Adaptat Sci Ctr, Amherst, MA 01003 USA; 3.Univ Massachusetts, Dept Geosci, Amherst, MA 01003 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sexton, D. M. H.,Karmalkar, A. V.,Murphy, J. M.,et al. Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part1: establishing the relationship between errors at weather and climate time scales[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:989-1022. |
APA | Sexton, D. M. H..,Karmalkar, A. V..,Murphy, J. M..,Williams, K. D..,Boutle, I. A..,...&Vosper, S. B..(2019).Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part1: establishing the relationship between errors at weather and climate time scales.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,989-1022. |
MLA | Sexton, D. M. H.,et al."Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part1: establishing the relationship between errors at weather and climate time scales".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):989-1022. |
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