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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-04608-w |
Climate prediction of dust weather frequency over northern China based on sea-ice cover and vegetation variability | |
Ji, Liuqing1,2; Fan, Ke1,2,3 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:687-705 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Seasonal climate predictions of spring (MarchAprilMay) dust weather frequency (DWF) over North China (DWFNC) are conducted based on a previous-summer (June-July-August) normalized difference vegetation index in North China (NDVINC), winter (December-January-February) sea-ice cover index over the Barents Sea (SICBS), and winter Antarctic Oscillation index (AAOI). The year-to-year increment approach is applied to improve the prediction skill. Two statistical prediction schemesstatistical models based on year-to-year-increment-form predictors (SM-DY) and anomaly-form predictors (SM-A)are applied based on NDVINC, SICBS, and AAOI. The results show that the prediction model using the year-to-year increment approach performs much better in predicting DWFNC, with the correlation coefficient between the average DWFNC and the cross-validated results of SM-DY (SM-A) being 0.80 (0.68) during 1983-2016. A hybrid dynamical-statistical prediction model (HM-DY) is constructed based on NDVINC, SICBS, and a spring 850-hPa geopotential height index, derived from the second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Results show that HM-DY has comparable prediction skill with SM-DY. Both SM-DY and HM-DY are extended to hindcast DWF over the 245 stations in the whole of northern China, indicating comparably high skill. The results show that NDVINC and SICBS account for large variances of the dust climate over northern China. In particular, NDVINC and SICBS can enhance 64% of stations in North China in their prediction of dust climate. |
英文关键词 | Dust weather Dust climate Antarctic oscillation Sea-ice cover Vegetation variability North China Climate prediction |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000471722400041 |
WOS关键词 | SOIL-MOISTURE ; EAST-ASIA ; STORMS ; WINTER ; MODEL ; EMISSION ; MONSOON ; OSCILLATION ; PERFORMANCE ; REGIONS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184398 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ji, Liuqing,Fan, Ke. Climate prediction of dust weather frequency over northern China based on sea-ice cover and vegetation variability[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:687-705. |
APA | Ji, Liuqing,&Fan, Ke.(2019).Climate prediction of dust weather frequency over northern China based on sea-ice cover and vegetation variability.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,687-705. |
MLA | Ji, Liuqing,et al."Climate prediction of dust weather frequency over northern China based on sea-ice cover and vegetation variability".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):687-705. |
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