Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-04609-9 |
Sub-seasonal prediction skill for the stratospheric meridional mass circulation variability in CFSv2 | |
Yu, Yueyue1; Cai, Ming2; Shi, Chunhua1; Yan, Ruikai2; Rao, Jian1 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:631-650 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | This study evaluates the prediction skill for the stratospheric mass circulation variability in winter (November-March) in the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), from 2011 to 2018. Three stratospheric mass circulation indices measuring meridional mass transport into the polar stratosphere by the total flow (ST60N), wavenumber-1 (ST60N_W1), and wavenumber-2 waves (ST60N_W2) are considered. The variability of ST60N is mainly contributed by ST60N_W1 and ST60N_W2, and these indices are good indicators of the timing and locations of the continental-scale cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) at mid-latitudes. Thus, their potentially useful prediction skill can be utilized to make sub-seasonal forecasts of CAOs in a dynamical and statistical hybrid paradigm. Systematic forecast bias is found in both the 7-year averaged winter mean and seasonal cycle, which is tied to the overestimation of damping in amplitude and westward tilting variations of total waves and difficulties in forecasting the exact contributions from different spatial scales of waves. The intraseasonal variations of stratospheric mass circulation indices, with the systematic forecast bias corrected, can be modestly predicted at a forecast lead time of about 20 days, in terms of both the anomaly value and timing of negative and positive peak events. The sub-seasonal predictability of the ST60N value mainly comes from the ST60N_W1, while the predictability of the timing of positive and negative peaks comes from the ST60N_W2. The 20-day prediction limit of the stratospheric mass circulation indices is mainly due to the 2-week limit of the CFSv2 model in predicting the variability of anomalous wave tilt angle, whereas the prediction limit of the wave amplitude anomaly can exceed 50days. |
英文关键词 | Subseasonal prediction skill Stratosphere Meridional mass circulation CFSv2 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000471722400038 |
WOS关键词 | COLD-AIR OUTBREAKS ; POLAR VORTEX ; WEATHER ; PREDICTABILITY ; FORECAST ; SYSTEM ; OSCILLATION ; ATMOSPHERE ; ANOMALIES ; STREAMS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184394 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change ILCEC, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster,Minist Educ KLME, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Florida State Univ, Dept Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Tallahassee, FL 32304 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yu, Yueyue,Cai, Ming,Shi, Chunhua,et al. Sub-seasonal prediction skill for the stratospheric meridional mass circulation variability in CFSv2[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:631-650. |
APA | Yu, Yueyue,Cai, Ming,Shi, Chunhua,Yan, Ruikai,&Rao, Jian.(2019).Sub-seasonal prediction skill for the stratospheric meridional mass circulation variability in CFSv2.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,631-650. |
MLA | Yu, Yueyue,et al."Sub-seasonal prediction skill for the stratospheric meridional mass circulation variability in CFSv2".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):631-650. |
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