Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04633-3 |
Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains | |
Morrill, Carrie1,2; Meador, Evelyn3; Livneh, Ben1,4; Liefert, David T.5; Shuman, Bryan N.5 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:1077-1094 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Recently-developed Holocene lake-level reconstructions from the Rocky Mountains offer a quantitative target for testing the skill of state-of-the-art climate system models in simulating hydroclimate change. Here, we use a combination of hydrologic models of catchment streamflow, lake energy balance, and lake water balance to simulate lake level at Little Windy Hill Pond (LWH) in the Medicine Bow Range of Wyoming for a period of severe drought during the mid-Holocene (MH; approximately 6000years ago). Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) output to drive our hydrologic models, we find that none of our simulations reproduce the significantly lowered lake levels at LWH during the MH. Rather, simulated hydroclimate changes for the MH are modest (<10% reductions in precipitation and streamflow and generally 10-30% increases in lake evaporation), and LWH lake-level changes are buffered by the large volume of snowmelt runoff that the lake receives. Only when winter precipitation is approximately halved in sensitivity experiments do water inputs to the lake become small enough that lake level can be significantly drawn down by year-over-year negative water balances. Possible explanations for the model-data mismatch could lie in the realism of our hydrological modeling framework or in the accuracy of the CMIP5 output, the latter having important implications for projections of future drying in western North America. |
英文关键词 | Lake level Water balance Streamflow Holocene North America Drought |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000471722400062 |
WOS关键词 | HYDROLOGICALLY BASED DATASET ; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL ; LAND-SURFACE FLUXES ; LATE-PLEISTOCENE ; WATER-BALANCE ; SYSTEM MODEL ; MOON LAKE ; HOLOCENE ; RECONSTRUCTION ; NEVADA |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184345 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 2.NOAA, Natl Ctr Environm Informat, Boulder, CO 80305 USA; 3.Univ Oregon, Earth Sci Dept, Eugene, OR 97403 USA; 4.Univ Colorado, Civil Environm & Architectural Engn, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 5.Univ Wyoming, Dept Geol & Geophys, Laramie, WY 82071 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Morrill, Carrie,Meador, Evelyn,Livneh, Ben,et al. Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:1077-1094. |
APA | Morrill, Carrie,Meador, Evelyn,Livneh, Ben,Liefert, David T.,&Shuman, Bryan N..(2019).Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,1077-1094. |
MLA | Morrill, Carrie,et al."Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):1077-1094. |
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