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DOI | 10.1002/joc.6045 |
Weights for general circulation models from CMIP3/CMIP5 in a statistical downscaling framework and the impact on future Mediterranean precipitation | |
Kaspar-Ott, Irena1; Hertig, Elke1; Kaspar, Severin1; Pollinger, Felix2; Ring, Christoph2; Paeth, Heiko2; Jacobeit, Jucundus1 | |
2019-06-30 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 39期号:8页码:3639-3654 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | This study investigates the projected precipitation changes of the 21st century in the Mediterranean area with a model ensemble of all available CMIP3 and CMIP5 data based on four different scenarios. The large spread of simulated precipitation change signals underlines the need of an evaluation of the individual general circulation models in order to give higher weights to better and lower weights to worse performing models. The models' spread comprises part of the internal climate variability, but is also due to the differing skills of the circulation models. The uncertainty resulting from the latter is the aim of our weighting approach. Each weight is based on the skill to simulate key predictor variables in context of large and medium scale atmospheric circulation patterns within a statistical downscaling framework for the Mediterranean precipitation. Therefore, geopotential heights, sea level pressure, atmospheric layer thickness, horizontal wind components and humidity data at several atmospheric levels are considered. The novelty of this metric consists in avoiding the use of the precipitation data by itself for the weighting process, as state-of-the-art models still have major deficits in simulating precipitation. The application of the weights on the downscaled precipitation changes leads to more reliable and precise change signals in some Mediterranean sub-regions and seasons. The model weights differ between sub-regions and seasons, however, a clear sequence from better to worse models for the representation of precipitation in the Mediterranean area becomes apparent. |
英文关键词 | CMIP3 CMIP5 Mediterranean area precipitation statistical downscaling weights |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000474160800016 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; UNCERTAINTY ; ENSEMBLE ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184316 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Augsburg, Inst Geog, Alter Postweg 118, D-86159 Augsburg, Germany; 2.Univ Wurzburg, Inst Geog & Geol, Wurzburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kaspar-Ott, Irena,Hertig, Elke,Kaspar, Severin,et al. Weights for general circulation models from CMIP3/CMIP5 in a statistical downscaling framework and the impact on future Mediterranean precipitation[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019,39(8):3639-3654. |
APA | Kaspar-Ott, Irena.,Hertig, Elke.,Kaspar, Severin.,Pollinger, Felix.,Ring, Christoph.,...&Jacobeit, Jucundus.(2019).Weights for general circulation models from CMIP3/CMIP5 in a statistical downscaling framework and the impact on future Mediterranean precipitation.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(8),3639-3654. |
MLA | Kaspar-Ott, Irena,et al."Weights for general circulation models from CMIP3/CMIP5 in a statistical downscaling framework and the impact on future Mediterranean precipitation".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.8(2019):3639-3654. |
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