Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018JD029522 |
Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model | |
Lenssen, Nathan J. L.1,2; Schmidt, Gavin A.1; Hansen, James E.3; Menne, Matthew J.4; Persin, Avraham1,5; Ruedy, Reto1,5; Zyss, Daniel1 | |
2019-06-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:12页码:6307-6326 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys, and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state-of-the-art reanalyses, and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization, and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05 degrees C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15 degrees C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date) and conclude with 86% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far). |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477800000025 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION ; LAND-AIR ; UPGRADES ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184178 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, New York, NY 10027 USA; 3.Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, Climate Sci Awareness & Solut, New York, NY USA; 4.NOAA, Natl Ctr Environm Informat, Asheville, NC USA; 5.SciSpace LLC, New York, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lenssen, Nathan J. L.,Schmidt, Gavin A.,Hansen, James E.,et al. Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(12):6307-6326. |
APA | Lenssen, Nathan J. L..,Schmidt, Gavin A..,Hansen, James E..,Menne, Matthew J..,Persin, Avraham.,...&Zyss, Daniel.(2019).Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(12),6307-6326. |
MLA | Lenssen, Nathan J. L.,et al."Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.12(2019):6307-6326. |
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