Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018JD029847 |
The Plausibility of September-November Congo Basin Rainfall Change in Coupled Climate Models | |
Creese, A.; Washington, R.; Munday, C. | |
2019-06-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:11页码:5822-5846 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | As one of three global hot spots of tropical convection, potential future changes to the Congo Basin climate system will have regional and tropics-wide implications. However, the latest generation of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 disagree on the sign and magnitude of future change and diverge in their estimation of the historical rainfall climatology. This study assesses the plausibility of different signals of future rainfall change by examining the processes relating to rainfall projections in samples of historically wet or dry models during the September-November rainy season. In the west Congo Basin, there are no significant differences in rainfall change projections in models that are historically wet or dry. Both composites feature wetting in the north (up to 1.8 mm/day) and drying in the south, associated with enhanced tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, increased evaporation, and enhanced low-level moisture flux into the basin. In the east Congo Basin, there is greater evidence that differences in model historical climatologies has an influence on the magnitude of future rainfall change. Historically wet models project significant wetting in the northeast (1.19 mm/day) associated with a weakened northern component of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and enhanced moisture convergence. Dry models do not capture the structure of the AEJs in the historical period, and so changes to the AEJs under warming do not produce the same wetting pattern. The analysis therefore casts doubt on the plausibility of the driest rainfall change signals in the east Congo Basin. |
英文关键词 | climate change Congo Basin CMIP5 climate model evaluation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477718400008 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; PRECIPITATION CHANGE ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; FUTURE PROJECTIONS ; SPATIAL-PATTERNS ; SOUTHERN AFRICA ; CMIP5 ; MECHANISMS ; OCEAN ; VARIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184127 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Creese, A.,Washington, R.,Munday, C.. The Plausibility of September-November Congo Basin Rainfall Change in Coupled Climate Models[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(11):5822-5846. |
APA | Creese, A.,Washington, R.,&Munday, C..(2019).The Plausibility of September-November Congo Basin Rainfall Change in Coupled Climate Models.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(11),5822-5846. |
MLA | Creese, A.,et al."The Plausibility of September-November Congo Basin Rainfall Change in Coupled Climate Models".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.11(2019):5822-5846. |
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