Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018JD030004 |
Ensemble Spatial Precipitation Analysis From Rain Gauge Data: Methodology and Application in the European Alps | |
Frei, Christoph; Isotta, Francesco A. | |
2019-06-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:11页码:5757-5778 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland |
英文摘要 | The deterministic nature of conventional precipitation data sets complicates their utility in applications. The underlying estimation principle (minimizing errors) involves biases in extremes, and conventional uncertainty quantification (cross-validation) is impractical. We present a method to derive spatial analyses of daily precipitation, probabilistically, as an ensemble, conditional on the available rain gauge data. The method builds on and extends previous techniques using conditional simulation with Gaussian Random Fields. The extension involves trans-Gaussian and piecewise covariance modeling to let the ensemble respond to regional precipitation conditions, Bayesian inference to account for parameter uncertainty, and simulation on a primary grid to ensure the ensemble has a well-defined areal support. While addressing prevalent issues of existing techniques, our method involves a compromise in global consistency that limits the utility of the ensemble over large domains. We apply the method to derive ensembles of area-mean precipitation for hydrological area units in the Alps. The ensembles are demonstrated to plausibly capture variations in uncertainty with rainfall condition, rain gauge density, and averaging area. Evaluations suggest that the probabilistic estimates are internally consistent and of good statistical reliability. There is a tendency to underestimate uncertainty for light precipitation. Results point to remarkable uncertainties, even with the dense gauge networks in the Alps: For means over 500-km(2) areas we find the ensemble spread to be typically a factor of 2-4 (factor of 1.5) for intense convective (stratiform) events. This also implies nonnegligible uncertainty in climate indices. Probabilistic representation of interpolation uncertainty in spatial data sets allows users to track them into applications. |
英文关键词 | spatial analysis precipitation ensemble uncertainty Alpine region |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477718400004 |
WOS关键词 | STOCHASTIC SIMULATION ; DATA SET ; UNCERTAINTY ; RESOLUTION ; RADAR ; CLIMATOLOGY ; FRAMEWORK ; FIELDS ; INTERPOLATION ; VALIDATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184123 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Fed Off Meteorol & Climatol MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Frei, Christoph,Isotta, Francesco A.. Ensemble Spatial Precipitation Analysis From Rain Gauge Data: Methodology and Application in the European Alps[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(11):5757-5778. |
APA | Frei, Christoph,&Isotta, Francesco A..(2019).Ensemble Spatial Precipitation Analysis From Rain Gauge Data: Methodology and Application in the European Alps.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(11),5757-5778. |
MLA | Frei, Christoph,et al."Ensemble Spatial Precipitation Analysis From Rain Gauge Data: Methodology and Application in the European Alps".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.11(2019):5757-5778. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论