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DOI | 10.1029/2018GL081800 |
Seasonal Prediction of Northern European Winter Air Temperatures From SST Anomalies Based on Sensitivity Estimates | |
Koehl, Armin1; Vlasenko, Andrey1,2 | |
2019-06-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:11页码:6109-6117 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | The climate over Europe is significantly affected by the state of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, which in turn is influenced by various slowly varying components of the climate system. Linear models are employed to investigate how much of the European winter air temperature variability can directly be predicted from the sea surface temperature. By comparing relations from a statistical model to those from an adjoint to a linearized climate model we evaluate the ability of the lagged maximum covariance analysis to reconstruct the dynamical relation between sea surface temperature (SST) and atmosphere temperature. Applied to specific SST conditions, both approaches allow prediction of a similar and significant fraction of the air temperature variability from SST. For a 1-month lag, extreme air temperature responses are significant and found to be associated with an omega-blocking pattern over Scandinavia. |
英文关键词 | air temperatures sensitivity analysis sea surface temperature statistical models |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477616200052 |
WOS关键词 | ATLANTIC SST ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; VARIABILITY ; OSCILLATION ; FORECASTS ; FEEDBACK ; IMPACT ; MODEL ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184116 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Hamburg, Inst Oceanog, Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil CEN, Hamburg, Germany; 2.Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Koehl, Armin,Vlasenko, Andrey. Seasonal Prediction of Northern European Winter Air Temperatures From SST Anomalies Based on Sensitivity Estimates[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(11):6109-6117. |
APA | Koehl, Armin,&Vlasenko, Andrey.(2019).Seasonal Prediction of Northern European Winter Air Temperatures From SST Anomalies Based on Sensitivity Estimates.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(11),6109-6117. |
MLA | Koehl, Armin,et al."Seasonal Prediction of Northern European Winter Air Temperatures From SST Anomalies Based on Sensitivity Estimates".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.11(2019):6109-6117. |
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