GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2019GL082847
An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming
Rowell, David P.
2019-06-16
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2019
卷号46期号:11页码:6050-6058
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England
英文摘要

Two outlying projections of the East African Long Rains suggest the seasonal rainfall may double by the late 21st century. Previous work has linked these extremes-found in the IPSL-CM5A model-to an exceptional March to May warming of the southern Indian Ocean. The current study shows a strong feedback between sea surface temperature (SST) increases and reduced low-level cloud cover (with similar behavior in other southern subtropical oceans). An observational constraint is developed by demonstrating a correlation across 28 models between the strength of present-day interannual SST-cloud sensitivity and future SST response. Verification of the present-day sensitivity finds that IPSL-CM5A's feedbacks are very likely overestimated. It is therefore suggested its projections should be discounted for the March to May southern Indian Ocean and East African Long Rains. This narrows the CMIP5 plausible range of Long Rains totals by a third.


英文关键词East Africa Indian Ocean climate change emergent constraint CMIP5 cloud feedbacks
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000477616200046
WOS关键词MODEL ; UNCERTAINTY ; TOP
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184110
专题气候变化
作者单位Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England
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GB/T 7714
Rowell, David P.. An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(11):6050-6058.
APA Rowell, David P..(2019).An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(11),6050-6058.
MLA Rowell, David P.."An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.11(2019):6050-6058.
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