Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.6021 |
Dynamical downscaling of CSIRO-Mk3.6 seasonal forecasts over Iran with the regional climate model version 4 | |
Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid | |
2019-06-15 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 39期号:7页码:3313-3322 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Iran |
英文摘要 | Providing reliable seasonal forecasts of the climate system is essential to make decisions for resource management and planning, such that advances in seasonal forecasting by dynamical downscaling can bring significant socio-economic benefits. A finer resolution Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) is nested within the large-scale fields of the coarser CSIRO-Mk3.6 general circulation model (GCM) to dynamically downscale outputs of CSIRO-Mk3.6 over Iran in Southwest Asia. To this end, 120 6-month-long simulations were conducted. Starting from January 2007, each simulation run forwards 1 month compared to the previous run, altogether covering the period 2007-2016. Comparing model results with ERA-Interim and CRU datasets indicated that RegCM4 is able to add some value to the driving CSIRO-Mk3.6, particularly in low lands of central to eastern Iran where CSIRO-Mk3.6 depicts significant cold biases. Nevertheless, relatively large biases in simulations of RegCM4 are found over some regions in Iran caused by propagation of errors from the driving GCM. It is also found that errors in prediction of different phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the driving CSIRO-Mk3.6 significantly degrade the nested model simulations, such that associated with La Nina and El Nino, large warm and cold biases are found, respectively, over Iran. Improvements should be made in physics of the CSIRO-Mk3.6 GCM to better simulate different phases of ENSO. Results also indicated that performance of RegCM4 in simulating 2-m temperature is strongly related to the forecast lead time, such that model errors generally become larger when the forecast time increases. |
英文关键词 | CSIRO-Mk3.6 dynamical downscaling El Nino-Southern Oscillation RegCM4 seasonal forecasting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000475693500015 |
WOS关键词 | DAILY PRECIPITATION ; ENSO ; SIMULATION ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184057 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Tehran, Inst Geophys, Tehran, Iran |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid. Dynamical downscaling of CSIRO-Mk3.6 seasonal forecasts over Iran with the regional climate model version 4[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019,39(7):3313-3322. |
APA | Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid.(2019).Dynamical downscaling of CSIRO-Mk3.6 seasonal forecasts over Iran with the regional climate model version 4.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(7),3313-3322. |
MLA | Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid."Dynamical downscaling of CSIRO-Mk3.6 seasonal forecasts over Iran with the regional climate model version 4".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.7(2019):3313-3322. |
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