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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0554.1 |
Variability and Predictability of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency in a Large Ensemble of High-Resolution Atmospheric Simulations | |
Mei, Wei1; Kamae, Youichi2; Xie, Shang-Ping3; Yoshida, Kohei4 | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:11页码:3153-3167 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Japan |
英文摘要 | Variability of North Atlantic annual hurricane frequency during 1951-2010 is studied using a 100-member ensemble of climate simulations by a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model that is forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The ensemble mean results well capture the interannual-to-decadal variability of hurricane frequency in best track data since 1970, and suggest that the current best track data might underestimate hurricane frequency prior to 1966 when satellite measurements were unavailable. A genesis potential index (GPI) averaged over the main development region (MDR) accounts for more than 80% of the SST-forced variations in hurricane frequency, with potential intensity and vertical wind shear being the dominant factors. In line with previous studies, the difference between MDR SST and tropical mean SST is a useful predictor; a 1 degrees C increase in this SST difference produces 7.05 +/- 1.39 more hurricanes. The hurricane frequency also exhibits strong internal variability that is systematically larger in the model than observations. The seasonal-mean environment is highly correlated among ensemble members and contributes to less than 10% of the ensemble spread in hurricane frequency. The strong internal variability is suggested to originate from weather to intraseasonal variability and nonlinearity. In practice, a 20-member ensemble is sufficient to capture the SST-forced variability. |
英文关键词 | Atmosphere North Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes typhoons Climate models Climate variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000467307600002 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY ; INTERNAL VARIABILITY ; EL-NINO ; SEASONAL FORECAST ; BASIN HURRICANES ; TRACK DENSITY ; CLIMATE ; GENESIS ; PREDICTIONS ; PACIFIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183837 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ N Carolina, Dept Marine Sci, Chapel Hill, NC 27515 USA; 2.Univ Tsukuba, Fac Life & Environm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 3.Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA; 4.Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mei, Wei,Kamae, Youichi,Xie, Shang-Ping,et al. Variability and Predictability of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency in a Large Ensemble of High-Resolution Atmospheric Simulations[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(11):3153-3167. |
APA | Mei, Wei,Kamae, Youichi,Xie, Shang-Ping,&Yoshida, Kohei.(2019).Variability and Predictability of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency in a Large Ensemble of High-Resolution Atmospheric Simulations.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(11),3153-3167. |
MLA | Mei, Wei,et al."Variability and Predictability of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency in a Large Ensemble of High-Resolution Atmospheric Simulations".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.11(2019):3153-3167. |
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