Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab10a8 |
Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and 'attractiveness' across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century | |
Parfenova, Elena1; Tchebakova, Nadezhda1; Soja, Amber2 | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Russia; USA |
英文摘要 | In the past, human migrations have been associated with climate change. As our civilizations developed, humans depended less on the environment, in particular on climate, because technological and economic development in the span of human history allowed us to adapt to and overcome environmental discomfort. Asian Russia (east of the Urals to the Pacific) is known to be sparsely populated. The population is concentrated along the forest-steppe in the south, with its comfortable climate and thriving agriculture on fertile soils. We use current and predicted climate scenarios to evaluate the climate comfort of various landscapes to determine the potential for human settlers throughout the 21st century. Climate change scenarios are taken from 20 CMIP5 general circulation models. Two CO2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP 2.6 representing mild climate change and RCP 8.5 representing more extreme changes, are applied to the large subcontinental territory of Asian Russia. The ensemble January and July temperature anomaly means and annual precipitation are calculated with respect to the baseline 1961-1990 climate. Three climate indices, which are important for human livelihood and well-being, are calculated based on January and July temperatures and annual precipitation: Ecological Landscape Potential, winter severity, and permafrost coverage. Climates predicted by the 2080s over Asian Russia would be much warmer and milder. Ensemble means do not show extreme aridity. The permafrost zone is predicted to significantly shift to the northeast. Ecological Landscape Potential would increase 1-2 categories from 'low' to 'relatively high' which would result in a higher capacity for population density across Asian Russia. Socio-economic processes and policy choices will compel the development that will lead to attracting people to migrate throughout the century. Therefore, understanding ecological landscape potential is crucial information for developing viable strategies for long-term economic and social development in preparation for climate migration and strategic adaptation planning. |
英文关键词 | Ecological landscape potential climate severity permafrost climate change human population density Asian Russia |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000470868200001 |
WOS关键词 | VEGETATION CHANGE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MIGRATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183753 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.RAS, Krasnoyarsk Fed Res Ctr, Sukachev Inst Forest, SB, Krasnoyarsk, Russia; 2.NASA Langley Res Ctr, NIA, Hampton, VA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Parfenova, Elena,Tchebakova, Nadezhda,Soja, Amber. Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and 'attractiveness' across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(6). |
APA | Parfenova, Elena,Tchebakova, Nadezhda,&Soja, Amber.(2019).Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and 'attractiveness' across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(6). |
MLA | Parfenova, Elena,et al."Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and 'attractiveness' across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.6(2019). |
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