Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.02.051 |
Simpler is better: Predicting consumer vehicle purchases in the short run | |
Doremus, Jacqueline1; Helfand, Gloria2; Liu, Changzheng3; Donahue, Marie; Kahan, Ari; Shelby, Michael4 | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 129页码:1404-1415 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | When agencies such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) establish future greenhouse gas emissions standards for new vehicles, forecasting future vehicle purchases due to changes in fuel economy and prices provides insight into regulatory impacts. We compare predictions from a nested logit model independently developed for US EPA to a simple model where past market share predicts future market share using data from model years 2008, 2010, and 2016. The simple model outperforms the nested logit model for all goodness-of prediction measures for both prediction years. Including changes in vehicle price and fuel economy increases bias in forecasted market shares. This bias suggests price increases are correlated with unobserved increases in vehicle quality, changes in preferences, or brand-specific changes in market size but not cost pass-through. For 2010, past shares predict better than a nested logit model despite a major shock, the economic disruption caused by the Great Recession. Observed share changes during this turbulent period may offer upper bounds for policy changes in other contexts: the largest observed change in market share across the two horizons is 6.6% for manufacturers in 2016 and 3.4% for an individual vehicle in 2010. |
英文关键词 | Vehicle demand Consumer vehicle choice modeling Validation Discrete choice modeling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000468012900130 |
WOS关键词 | FUEL-ECONOMY STANDARDS ; PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION ; DEMAND ; MODELS ; INCENTIVES ; IMPACTS ; MARKETS ; PRICES ; CASH |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183625 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Calif Polytech State Univ San Luis Obispo, Econ Dept, Orfalea Coll Business, 1 Grand Ave, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407 USA; 2.US EPA, Off Transportat & Air Qual, 2000 Traverwood Dr, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 USA; 3.Wabnart Labs, 860 W Calif Ave, Sunnyvale, CA 94086 USA; 4.US EPA, Off Transportat & Air Qual, 1200 Penn Ave,NW Room 6520J, Washington, DC 20460 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Doremus, Jacqueline,Helfand, Gloria,Liu, Changzheng,et al. Simpler is better: Predicting consumer vehicle purchases in the short run[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2019,129:1404-1415. |
APA | Doremus, Jacqueline,Helfand, Gloria,Liu, Changzheng,Donahue, Marie,Kahan, Ari,&Shelby, Michael.(2019).Simpler is better: Predicting consumer vehicle purchases in the short run.ENERGY POLICY,129,1404-1415. |
MLA | Doremus, Jacqueline,et al."Simpler is better: Predicting consumer vehicle purchases in the short run".ENERGY POLICY 129(2019):1404-1415. |
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