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DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.03.015 |
The impact of energy price uncertainty on macroeconomic variables | |
Punzi, Maria Teresa | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 129页码:1306-1319 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Austria |
英文摘要 | This paper evaluates the macroeconomic implications of energy price volatility through the lens of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in an open economy. The model develops a small open economy in which households consume energy products and firms use energy as productivity inputs, where the country is so small that it needs to import energy, the price of which is determined abroad. Whereas positive energy price shocks cause an economic slowdown due to higher costs for consumers and firms, energy price volatility shocks generate an increase in GDP in the short-run and a reversal in the long-run. These findings are empirically supported by estimates from a Panel VAR model applied to 10 Asian economies, where energy price volatility has a positive impact on GDP in the short-run. Moreover, the paper finds that increasing demand or supply uncertainty also affect energy prices, with amplified fluctuations relative to a model that abstracts from energy. Market volatility leads households to cut consumption for precautionary savings motives, which in turn increases investment. Both energy price and uncertainty fluctuation lead to high macroeconomic volatility in the business cycle. Policy makers should encourage investment in energy security and renewable energy, such that households and firms would become less responding to fluctuations in the non-renewable energy market. |
英文关键词 | Energy price Uncertainty Stochastic volatility DSGE model Panel VAR |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000468012900120 |
WOS关键词 | OIL-SUPPLY SHOCKS ; ECONOMIC-ACTIVITY ; SECURITY ; CHINA ; DEMAND ; MODEL ; GDP |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183612 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Webster Vienna Private Univ, Vienna, Austria |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Punzi, Maria Teresa. The impact of energy price uncertainty on macroeconomic variables[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2019,129:1306-1319. |
APA | Punzi, Maria Teresa.(2019).The impact of energy price uncertainty on macroeconomic variables.ENERGY POLICY,129,1306-1319. |
MLA | Punzi, Maria Teresa."The impact of energy price uncertainty on macroeconomic variables".ENERGY POLICY 129(2019):1306-1319. |
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