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DOI10.1007/s10584-019-02411-y
Identifying credible and diverse GCMs for regional climate change studiescase study: Northeastern United States
Karmalkar, Ambarish V.1,2; Thibeault, Jeanne M.3; Bryan, Alexander M.4; Seth, Anji3
2019-06-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2019
卷号154页码:367-386
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Climate data obtained from global climate models (GCMs) form the basis of most studies of regional climate change and its impacts. Using the northeastern U.S. as a test case, we develop a framework to systematically sub-select reliable models for use in climate change studies in the region. Model performance over the historical period is evaluated first for a wide variety of standard and process metrics including large-scale atmospheric circulation features that drive regional climate variability. The inclusion of process-based metrics allows identification of credible models in capturing key processes relevant for the climate of the northeastern U.S. Model performance is then used in conjunction with the assessment of redundancy in model projections, especially in summer precipitation, to eliminate models that have better performing counterparts. Finally, we retain some mixed-performing models to maintain the range of climate model uncertainty, required by the fact that model biases are not strongly related to their respective projections. This framework leads to the retention of 16 of 36 CMIP5 GCMs that (a) have a satisfactory historical performance for a variety of metrics and (b) provide diverse climate projections consistent with uncertainties in the multi-model ensemble (MME). Overall, the models show significant variations in their performance across metrics and seasons with none emerging as the best model in all metrics. The retained set reduces the number of models by more than one half, easing the computational burden of using the entire CMIP5 MME, while still maintaining a wide range of projections for risk assessment. The retention of some mixed-performing models to maintain ensemble uncertainty suggests a potential to narrow the ranges in temperature and precipitation. But any further refinement should be based on a more detailed analysis of models in capturing regional climate variability and extremes to avoid providing overconfident projections.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000472894800005
WOS关键词NORTH-AMERICAN CLIMATE ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; CMIP5 ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; MODELS ; VARIABILITY ; SIMULATIONS ; PERFORMANCE ; UNCERTAINTY
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:26[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183530
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Massachusetts, Northeast Climate Adaptat Sci Ctr, Amherst, MA 01003 USA;
2.Univ Massachusetts, Dept Geosci, Amherst, MA 01003 USA;
3.Univ Connecticut, Dept Geog, Storrs, CT USA;
4.Univ Massachusetts, US Geol Survey, Northeast Climate Adaptat Sci Ctr, Amherst, MA 01003 USA
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GB/T 7714
Karmalkar, Ambarish V.,Thibeault, Jeanne M.,Bryan, Alexander M.,et al. Identifying credible and diverse GCMs for regional climate change studiescase study: Northeastern United States[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,154:367-386.
APA Karmalkar, Ambarish V.,Thibeault, Jeanne M.,Bryan, Alexander M.,&Seth, Anji.(2019).Identifying credible and diverse GCMs for regional climate change studiescase study: Northeastern United States.CLIMATIC CHANGE,154,367-386.
MLA Karmalkar, Ambarish V.,et al."Identifying credible and diverse GCMs for regional climate change studiescase study: Northeastern United States".CLIMATIC CHANGE 154(2019):367-386.
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