Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4559-7 |
Historical and future changes of atmospheric precipitable water over China simulated by CMIP5 models | |
Zhang, Jingpeng1; Zhao, Tianbao2 | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52期号:11页码:6969-6988 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Atmospheric water vapor has not only been reported to increase in the real world, but is also expected to increase in climate models. Correctly simulating water vapor and its relationship with temperature is thus vital for climate models. In this study, atmospheric precipitable water (PW) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is evaluated over China during 1970-2005, and then the future changes of PW and their correlation with near-surface air temperature (Ts) are further investigated. The results show that the PW biases in the model simulations are within similar to 20% for most of eastern China, but have larger root-mean-square error over southeastern China. Most models are able to simulate the observed PW upward trends since 1970, but with large inter-model spread. CanESM2, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 are relatively better at reproducing the observed long-term variations and trends for the whole of China and its subregions. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the model simulations reproduce the first observed leading modes well, but barely capture the temporal variation revealed by the second observed EOF. The model simulations project ubiquitous increases in PW in the twenty-first century, resulting from an increase in the mean and a flattening of the probability distribution functions of the PW anomalies. In particular, the increases in PW under the most severe future emissions scenario (RCP8.5) are nearly twice as much as those under the low-mid emissions scenario (RCP4.5) for most of China by the late twenty-first century. The model simulations suggest that the changes in PW are largely consistent with the changes in Ts during 1970-2005, with a dPW/dTs slope of similar to 4.6-6.0%K-1, which roughly agrees with the observed results but is slightly lower than the 7%K-1 implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation with a constant relative humidity. In the twenty-first century, the dPW/dTs is projected to be about 5.5-7.0%K-1 under the RCP4.5 scenario, but may reach similar to 7.4%K-1 or higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. |
英文关键词 | Atmospheric precipitable water Observations CMIP5 model Historical simulations Future projections China |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000469016700038 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE HUMIDITY ; CLIMATE ; FEEDBACK ; TEMPERATURE ; ATTRIBUTION ; RADIOSONDE ; TRENDS ; VAPOR |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183493 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Key Lab Semiarid Climate Change, Minist Educ, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Res East Asia, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Jingpeng,Zhao, Tianbao. Historical and future changes of atmospheric precipitable water over China simulated by CMIP5 models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52(11):6969-6988. |
APA | Zhang, Jingpeng,&Zhao, Tianbao.(2019).Historical and future changes of atmospheric precipitable water over China simulated by CMIP5 models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(11),6969-6988. |
MLA | Zhang, Jingpeng,et al."Historical and future changes of atmospheric precipitable water over China simulated by CMIP5 models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.11(2019):6969-6988. |
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