Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4556-x |
Seasonal predictability of the tropical Atlantic variability: northern tropical Atlantic pattern | |
Fang, Guangyang1,2; Huang, Bohua1,2 | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52期号:11页码:6909-6929 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | A series of ensemble predictability experiments in a setting of the perfect model scenario have been conducted using the global coupled community earth system model (CESM), Version 1.1, to evaluate the seasonal predictability of the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) pattern in the tropical Atlantic variability (TAV). Our analysis of an 86-year control simulation shows that CESM reproduces the annual cycle and interannual variability realistically. In particular, the NTA patterns, extracted as the first modes of the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analyses, are consistent between the model and observations. A set of the extreme NTA events is selected from the control simulation based on the peaking values of the time series of the NTA mode. Ensemble predictability experiments are conducted to predict each of these events as the truth at seasonal lead times with small perturbations of the atmospheric initial states. The correlation and root mean square error (RMSE) of the ensemble mean, as well as the ensemble spread and reliability, are used to assess the prediction skill quantitatively. It demonstrates that the model can forecast the NTA events skillfully at monthly leads up to 9months. Composite analysis of the predicted positive and negative events is conducted to explore the physical influences of the regional air-sea interaction and the remote forcing from outside the Atlantic basin, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is shown that the surface latent heat flux anomalies, generated by surface wind anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic from boreal fall and winter, force the NTA SST anomalies that peak in spring. Most of these wind anomalies are in turn generated by the remote ENSO forcing. As a result, the NTA pattern can be predicted realistically as long as the ENSO events are predictable. |
英文关键词 | Seasonal predictability TAV NTA ENSO CESM |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000469016700035 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; DOUBLE-ITCZ PROBLEM ; EL-NINO ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; COUPLED MODEL ; OCEAN ; PREDICTION ; NORDESTE ; FEEDBACK ; PACIFIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183490 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.George Mason Univ, Coll Sci, Dept Atmospher Ocean & Earth Sci, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; 2.Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fang, Guangyang,Huang, Bohua. Seasonal predictability of the tropical Atlantic variability: northern tropical Atlantic pattern[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52(11):6909-6929. |
APA | Fang, Guangyang,&Huang, Bohua.(2019).Seasonal predictability of the tropical Atlantic variability: northern tropical Atlantic pattern.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(11),6909-6929. |
MLA | Fang, Guangyang,et al."Seasonal predictability of the tropical Atlantic variability: northern tropical Atlantic pattern".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.11(2019):6909-6929. |
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