GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4549-9
Can kurtosis be an early warning signal for abrupt climate change?
Xie, Xiao-qiang1,2,3; He, Wen-ping2,3; Gu, Bin1,2; Mei, Ying1,2,3; Zhao, Shan-shan2,3
2019-06-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号52期号:11页码:6863-6876
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

The climate system occasionally experiences an abrupt change. However, it is very difficult to predict this change at present. Fortunately, some generic properties have been revealed before several different types of dynamical system near their own critical thresholds. These properties provide a possible way to give an early warning for an impending abrupt climate change. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the applicability of an early warning indicator of an abrupt change. On the basis of several simple fold models, we have systematically investigated the performance of the kurtosis coefficient as an early warning signal for an upcoming abrupt climate change. The testing results indicate that the kurtosis coefficient is a reliable warning indicator in most of cases whether a critical control parameter or the strength of an external forcing approaches a critical point. However, the strong noise can greatly shorten the effective warning time, and also can result in the reduction of the magnitude of a kurtosis coefficient when a dynamical system approaches its critical threshold. The missing data has almost no effect on the kurtosis coefficient in all of tests, even it is true when the missing data accounts for 20% of the total sample. We also found that the kurtosis coefficient does not work in some cases, which means that the kurtosis coefficient is not a universal early warning signal for an upcoming abrupt change.


英文关键词Early warning signal Abrupt climate change Kurtosis coefficient Critical point
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000469016700032
WOS关键词REGIME SHIFTS ; CATASTROPHIC SHIFTS ; TIME ; TRANSITIONS ; INDICATOR ; ECOSYSTEM ; SCHEME ; IMPACT ; CHINA
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183487
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Inst Space Weather, Dept Phys, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;
2.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;
3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
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GB/T 7714
Xie, Xiao-qiang,He, Wen-ping,Gu, Bin,et al. Can kurtosis be an early warning signal for abrupt climate change?[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52(11):6863-6876.
APA Xie, Xiao-qiang,He, Wen-ping,Gu, Bin,Mei, Ying,&Zhao, Shan-shan.(2019).Can kurtosis be an early warning signal for abrupt climate change?.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(11),6863-6876.
MLA Xie, Xiao-qiang,et al."Can kurtosis be an early warning signal for abrupt climate change?".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.11(2019):6863-6876.
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