Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4549-9 |
Can kurtosis be an early warning signal for abrupt climate change? | |
Xie, Xiao-qiang1,2,3; He, Wen-ping2,3; Gu, Bin1,2; Mei, Ying1,2,3; Zhao, Shan-shan2,3 | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52期号:11页码:6863-6876 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The climate system occasionally experiences an abrupt change. However, it is very difficult to predict this change at present. Fortunately, some generic properties have been revealed before several different types of dynamical system near their own critical thresholds. These properties provide a possible way to give an early warning for an impending abrupt climate change. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the applicability of an early warning indicator of an abrupt change. On the basis of several simple fold models, we have systematically investigated the performance of the kurtosis coefficient as an early warning signal for an upcoming abrupt climate change. The testing results indicate that the kurtosis coefficient is a reliable warning indicator in most of cases whether a critical control parameter or the strength of an external forcing approaches a critical point. However, the strong noise can greatly shorten the effective warning time, and also can result in the reduction of the magnitude of a kurtosis coefficient when a dynamical system approaches its critical threshold. The missing data has almost no effect on the kurtosis coefficient in all of tests, even it is true when the missing data accounts for 20% of the total sample. We also found that the kurtosis coefficient does not work in some cases, which means that the kurtosis coefficient is not a universal early warning signal for an upcoming abrupt change. |
英文关键词 | Early warning signal Abrupt climate change Kurtosis coefficient Critical point |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000469016700032 |
WOS关键词 | REGIME SHIFTS ; CATASTROPHIC SHIFTS ; TIME ; TRANSITIONS ; INDICATOR ; ECOSYSTEM ; SCHEME ; IMPACT ; CHINA |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183487 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Inst Space Weather, Dept Phys, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xie, Xiao-qiang,He, Wen-ping,Gu, Bin,et al. Can kurtosis be an early warning signal for abrupt climate change?[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52(11):6863-6876. |
APA | Xie, Xiao-qiang,He, Wen-ping,Gu, Bin,Mei, Ying,&Zhao, Shan-shan.(2019).Can kurtosis be an early warning signal for abrupt climate change?.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(11),6863-6876. |
MLA | Xie, Xiao-qiang,et al."Can kurtosis be an early warning signal for abrupt climate change?".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.11(2019):6863-6876. |
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