Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4526-3 |
Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system | |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur1; Robson, Jon1; Dong, Buwen1; Dieppois, Bastien2,3,4; Pohl, Benjamin5; Dunstone, Nick6 | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52期号:11页码:6491-6510 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; South Africa; France |
英文摘要 | We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15 degrees S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of 60km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959-2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2-4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14-16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990-2016 period, compared to the 1959-1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability. |
英文关键词 | Southern African precipitation ENSO Seasonal prediction High resolution climate models |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000469016700011 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL-TEMPERATE TROUGHS ; INDIAN-OCEAN DIPOLE ; EL-NINO ; DECADAL PREDICTION ; INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY ; CLIMATE PREDICTIONS ; MODEL SIMULATIONS ; ENSO VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL SEASON ; OSCILLATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183466 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, NCAS, Reading, Berks, England; 2.Coventry Univ, Ctr Agroecol Water & Resilience, Coventry, W Midlands, England; 3.Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham, W Midlands, England; 4.Univ Cape Town, Dept Oceanog, MARE Inst, Cape Town, South Africa; 5.Univ Bourgogne Franche Comte, Ctr Rech Climatol, UMR6282 Biogeosci, CNRS, Dijon, France; 6.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Monerie, Paul-Arthur,Robson, Jon,Dong, Buwen,et al. Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52(11):6491-6510. |
APA | Monerie, Paul-Arthur,Robson, Jon,Dong, Buwen,Dieppois, Bastien,Pohl, Benjamin,&Dunstone, Nick.(2019).Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(11),6491-6510. |
MLA | Monerie, Paul-Arthur,et al."Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.11(2019):6491-6510. |
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