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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4520-9 |
Seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track variability in Project Minerva | |
Feng, Xuelei1,2; Huang, Bohua3,4; Straus, David M.3,4 | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52期号:11页码:6427-6440 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea; USA |
英文摘要 | The seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track anomalies in boreal winter (December-January-February, DJF) is examined using seasonal ensemble reforecasts for 1982-2009 from the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System at two different atmospheric resolutions in Project Minerva. It is found that the predictable signals of storm track variations are associated with the two leading EOF modes of ensemble-averaged DJF variances of the high-pass filtered daily meridional winds at 250-hPa level derived from each of the hindcast ensemble members. These two EOF modes are highly correlated both temporarily and spatially between two sets of reforecasts. The first mode (EOF1) mainly shows a latitudinal shift of the storm tracks over the central-eastern North Pacific and the North America continent. The second mode (EOF2) is primarily the pulsing signal exerting on the mean storm track background of the North Pacific. The model predictive skill is verified against observations. The first mode has higher prediction skills and larger skillful regions than the second one. In particular, the first predictable mode is generated by the ENSO-induced wave train, starting from tropical central Pacific and propagating to North America. The skillful region lies in the North Pacific to the west of California, corresponding to the southern lobe of EOF1. The second predictable mode is generated by the North Pacific Mode, which evokes a distinctive wave train, emanating from the tropical western Pacific and propagating northeastward. Its skillful region of the storm track prediction is confined to a small area of Canada western coastlines. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000469016700007 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL ATLANTIC ; ASSIMILATION ; CLIMATOLOGY ; RESOLUTION ; PATTERNS ; WINTER ; FLOW |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183462 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Inst Basic Sci, Ctr Climate Phys, Busan, South Korea; 2.Pusan Natl Univ, Busan, South Korea; 3.George Mason Univ, Dept Atmospher Ocean & Earth Sci, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; 4.George Mason Univ, Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Feng, Xuelei,Huang, Bohua,Straus, David M.. Seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track variability in Project Minerva[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52(11):6427-6440. |
APA | Feng, Xuelei,Huang, Bohua,&Straus, David M..(2019).Seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track variability in Project Minerva.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(11),6427-6440. |
MLA | Feng, Xuelei,et al."Seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track variability in Project Minerva".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.11(2019):6427-6440. |
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