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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4519-2 |
A consistent statistical model selection for abrupt glacial climate changes | |
Lohmann, Johannes; Ditlevsen, Peter D. | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52期号:11页码:6411-6426 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Denmark |
英文摘要 | The most pronounced mode of climate variability during the last glacial period are the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events. There is no consensus of the underlying dynamical mechanism of these abrupt climate changes and they are elusive in most simulations of state-of-the-art coupled climate models. There has been significant debate over whether the climate system is exhibiting self-sustained oscillations with vastly varying periods across these events, or rather noise-induced jumps in between two quasi-stable regimes. In previous studies, statistical model comparison has been employed to the NGRIP ice core record from Greenland in order to compare different classes of stochastic dynamical systems, representing different dynamical paradigms. Such model comparison studies typically rely on accurately reproducing the observed records. We aim to avoid this due to the large amount of stochasticity and uncertainty both on long and short time scales in the record. Instead, we focus on the most important qualitative features of the data, as captured by summary statistics. These are computed from the distributions of waiting times in between events and residence times in warm and cold regimes, as well as the stationary density and the autocorrelation function. We perform Bayesian inference and model comparison experiments based solely on these summary statistics via Approximate Bayesian Computation. This yields an alternative approach to existing studies that helps to reconcile and synthesize insights from Bayesian model comparison and qualitative statistical analysis. |
英文关键词 | Dansgaard-Oeschger events Statistical model comparison Approximate Bayesian computation Abrupt climate change Millennial-scale climate variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000469016700006 |
WOS关键词 | NOISE ; TRANSITIONS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183461 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Inst, Ctr Ice & Climate, Copenhagen, Denmark |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lohmann, Johannes,Ditlevsen, Peter D.. A consistent statistical model selection for abrupt glacial climate changes[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52(11):6411-6426. |
APA | Lohmann, Johannes,&Ditlevsen, Peter D..(2019).A consistent statistical model selection for abrupt glacial climate changes.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(11),6411-6426. |
MLA | Lohmann, Johannes,et al."A consistent statistical model selection for abrupt glacial climate changes".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.11(2019):6411-6426. |
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