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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4516-5 |
A newly developed APCC SCoPS and its prediction of East Asia seasonal climate variability | |
Ham, Suryun1; Lim, A-Young1; Kang, Suchul2; Jeong, Hyein3; Jeong, Yeomin1 | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52期号:11页码:6391-6410 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea; USA |
英文摘要 | The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC) in-house model (Seamless Coupled Prediction System: SCoPS) has been newly developed for operational seasonal forecasting. SCoPS has generated ensemble retrospective forecasts for the period 1982-2013 and real-time forecasts for the period 2014-current. In this study, the seasonal prediction skill of the SCoPS hindcast ensemble was validated compared to those of the previous operation model (APEC Climate Center Community Climate System Model version 3: APCC CCSM3). This study validated the spatial and temporal prediction skills of hindcast climatology, large-scale features, and the seasonal climate variability from both systems. A special focus was the fidelity of the systems to reproduce and forecast phenomena that are closely related to the East Asian monsoon system. Overall, both CCSM3 and SCoPS exhibit realistic representations of the basic climate, although systematic biases are found for surface temperature and precipitation. The averaged temporal anomaly correlation coefficient for sea surface temperature, 2-m temperature, and precipitation from SCoPS is higher than those from CCSM3. Notably, SCoPS well captures the northward migrated rainband related to the East Asian summer monsoon. The SCoPS simulation also shows useful skill in predicting the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. Consequently, SCoPS is more skillful than CCSM3 in predicting seasonal climate variability, including the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation. Further, it is clear that the seasonal climate forecast with SCoPS will be useful for simulating the East Asian monsoon system. |
英文关键词 | APCC in-house model SCoPS Seasonal prediction East Asian monsoon |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000469016700005 |
WOS关键词 | DATA ASSIMILATION ; WINTER MONSOON ; MODEL ; SYSTEM ; CIRCULATION ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183460 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.APEC Climate Ctr, Climate Serv & Res Dept, Busan 48058, South Korea; 2.MIT, Ralph M Parsons Lab, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 3.Los Alamos Natl Lab, Div Theoret, Fluid Dynam & Solid Mech T3, Los Alamos, NM USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ham, Suryun,Lim, A-Young,Kang, Suchul,et al. A newly developed APCC SCoPS and its prediction of East Asia seasonal climate variability[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52(11):6391-6410. |
APA | Ham, Suryun,Lim, A-Young,Kang, Suchul,Jeong, Hyein,&Jeong, Yeomin.(2019).A newly developed APCC SCoPS and its prediction of East Asia seasonal climate variability.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(11),6391-6410. |
MLA | Ham, Suryun,et al."A newly developed APCC SCoPS and its prediction of East Asia seasonal climate variability".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.11(2019):6391-6410. |
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