Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-17-12341-2017 |
Multi-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: current status and outlook | |
Sofiev, Mikhail1; Ritenberga, Olga2; Albertini, Roberto3; Arteta, Joaquim4; Belmonte, Jordina5,6; Bernstein, Carmi Geller7; Bonini, Maira8; Celenk, Sevcan9; Damialis, Athanasios10,11,12; Douros, John13; Elbern, Hendrik14; Friese, Elmar14; Galan, Carmen15; Oliver, Gilles16; Hrga, Ivana17; Kouznetsov, Rostislav1,23; Krajsek, Kai18; Magyar, Donat19; Parmentier, Jonathan4; Plu, Matthieu4; Prank, Marje1; Robertson, Lennart20; Steensen, Birthe Marie21; Thibaudon, Michel16; Segers, Arjo22; Stepanovich, Barbara17; Valdebenito, Alvaro M.21; Vira, Julius1; Vokou, Despoina12 | |
2017-10-17 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS |
ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 17期号:20 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Finland; Latvia; Italy; France; Spain; Israel; Turkey; Germany; Greece; Netherlands; Croatia; Hungary; Sweden; Norway; Russia |
英文摘要 | The paper presents the first modelling experiment of the European-scale olive pollen dispersion, analyses the quality of the predictions, and outlines the research needs. A 6-model strong ensemble of Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) was run throughout the olive season of 2014, computing the olive pollen distribution. The simulations have been compared with observations in eight countries, which are members of the European Aeroallergen Network (EAN). Analysis was performed for individual models, the ensemble mean and median, and for a dynamically optimised combination of the ensemble members obtained via fusion of the model predictions with observations. The models, generally reproducing the olive season of 2014, showed noticeable deviations from both observations and each other. In particular, the season was reported to start too early by 8 days, but for some models the error mounted to almost 2 weeks. For the end of the season, the disagreement between the models and the observations varied from a nearly perfect match up to 2 weeks too late. A series of sensitivity studies carried out to understand the origin of the disagreements revealed the crucial role of ambient temperature and consistency of its representation by the meteorological models and heat-sum-based phenological model. In particular, a simple correction to the heat-sum threshold eliminated the shift of the start of the season but its validity in other years remains to be checked. The short-term features of the concentration time series were reproduced better, suggesting that the precipitation events and cold/warm spells, as well as the large-scale transport, were represented rather well. Ensemble averaging led to more robust results. The best skill scores were obtained with data fusion, which used the previous days' observations to identify the optimal weighting coefficients of the individual model forecasts. Such combinations were tested for the forecasting period up to 4 days and shown to remain nearly optimal throughout the whole period. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000413112300002 |
WOS关键词 | LAND-SURFACE PARAMETERS ; DRY DEPOSITION SCHEME ; LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT ; OLEA-EUROPAEA ; BIRCH POLLEN ; ADVECTION ALGORITHM ; IBERIAN PENINSULA ; ALLERGENIC POLLEN ; AIRBORNE POLLEN ; GLOBAL DATABASE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/18336 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Finnish Meteorol Inst, Erik Palmenin Aukio 1, Helsinki, Finland; 2.Univ Latvia, Riga, Latvia; 3.Univ Parma, Dept Med & Surg, Parma, Italy; 4.Meteo France CNRS, CNRM UMR 3589, Toulouse, France; 5.Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Inst Environm Sci & Technol ICTA, Barcelona, Spain; 6.Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Dept Anim Biol Plant Biol & Ecol, Barcelona, Spain; 7.Sheba Med Ctr, Ramat Gan Zabludowicz Ctr Autoimmune Dis, Ramat Gan, Israel; 8.Agenzia Tutela Salute Citta Metropolitana Milano, LHA ATS Citta Metropolitana, Milan, Italy; 9.Uludag Univ, Biol Dept, Bursa, Turkey; 10.Tech Univ Munich, UNIKA T, Chair & Inst Environm Med, Augsburg, Germany; 11.Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen, German Res Ctr Environm Hlth, Augsburg, Germany; 12.Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Sch Biol, Dept Ecol, Thessaloniki, Greece; 13.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst, De Bilt, Netherlands; 14.Univ Cologne, Rhenish Inst Environm Res, Cologne, Germany; 15.Univ Cordoba, Dpto Bot Ecol & Fisiol Vegetal, Cordoba, Spain; 16.RNSA, Brussieu, France; 17.Andrija Stampar Teaching Inst Publ Hlth, Zagreb, Croatia; 18.Forschungszentrum Julich, Inst Energy & Climate Res IEK 8, Julich, Germany; 19.Natl Ctr Publ Hlth, Budapest, Hungary; 20.SMHI, Norrkoping, Sweden; 21.MET Norway, Oslo, Norway; 22.TNO, The Hague, Netherlands; 23.Russian Acad Sci, IAPh, Moscow, Russia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sofiev, Mikhail,Ritenberga, Olga,Albertini, Roberto,et al. Multi-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: current status and outlook[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2017,17(20). |
APA | Sofiev, Mikhail.,Ritenberga, Olga.,Albertini, Roberto.,Arteta, Joaquim.,Belmonte, Jordina.,...&Vokou, Despoina.(2017).Multi-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: current status and outlook.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,17(20). |
MLA | Sofiev, Mikhail,et al."Multi-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: current status and outlook".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 17.20(2017). |
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