Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018JD029599 |
Projected Changes in United States Regional Extreme Heat Days Derived From Bivariate Quantile Mapping of CMIP5 Simulations | |
Schoof, J. T.1; Pryor, S. C.2; Ford, T. W.1 | |
2019-05-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:10页码:5214-5232 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Projections of multivariate climate extremes require methodological approaches that can maintain relationships among variables. Here we apply a piecewise multivariate quantile mapping approach to temperature and humidity projections from a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and analyze the resulting climatology of extreme heat days (EHDs) with explicit consideration of the prevailing humidity. The piecewise multivariate bias correction method shows good fidelity in reproducing the frequency of different types of extreme heat events in the historical period. Projections for U.S. regions and individual cities for both the middle and end of the century are characterized by increases in the frequency of EHDs, and especially those characterized by high humidity. For many regions and individual cities, there is no overlap between the frequency of high-humidity EHDs in general circulation model ensembles from the historical and future periods, indicating that increases in extreme heat are robust. Analysis of 500-mb height, sea-level pressure, and low-level circulation composites for historical and future periods indicates that the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models reproduce basic large-scale circulation features associated with EHDs in U.S. regions and that future changes in extreme heat are related primarily to large-scale warming rather than enhancement of regional circulation anomalies. |
英文关键词 | climate extremes extreme heat downscaling climate modeling CMIP5 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000471237200005 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; BASIC EVALUATION ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; WAVES ; PRECIPITATION ; UNCERTAINTIES ; CIRCULATION ; PERFORMANCE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183338 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Southern Illinois Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Resources, Carbondale, IL 62901 USA; 2.Cornell Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Schoof, J. T.,Pryor, S. C.,Ford, T. W.. Projected Changes in United States Regional Extreme Heat Days Derived From Bivariate Quantile Mapping of CMIP5 Simulations[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(10):5214-5232. |
APA | Schoof, J. T.,Pryor, S. C.,&Ford, T. W..(2019).Projected Changes in United States Regional Extreme Heat Days Derived From Bivariate Quantile Mapping of CMIP5 Simulations.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(10),5214-5232. |
MLA | Schoof, J. T.,et al."Projected Changes in United States Regional Extreme Heat Days Derived From Bivariate Quantile Mapping of CMIP5 Simulations".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.10(2019):5214-5232. |
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