资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This paper scrutinizes the zonal oscillation of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) via diagnosing its two extreme phases, which are defined by the top 10% strongest (positive phase) and the weakest (negative phase) WNPSH index (WNPSHI) days during summers in 1979-2016. Key findings include the following: a tripole pattern consisting of intensified (weakened) precipitation over the Maritime Continent and the East Asian summer monsoon regions, and suppressed (strengthened) precipitation over the western North Pacific summer monsoon region during positive (negative) WNPSH phases; a westward movement of WNPSH-induced precipitation anomalies that subsequently affects eastern China, Japan, and the Korean Peninsula at different time lags; an OLR-vorticity pattern explained by atmospheric responses to thermal sources is suggested to drive the oscillation; and the competitive interaction of local air-sea feedbacks, especially during the positive phase. In addition, moderate-to-strong positive correlations between the WNPSHI and the Nino-3.4 index are found on 1-2-, 2-3-, and 3-6-yr time scales; both exhibit decadal shifts to a higher-frequency mode, suggesting the intensification of both the zonal WNPSH oscillation and the ENSO under the changing climate and their close interdecadal association. A nonlinear quasi-biennial WNPSH-ENSO relationship is identified: the positive (negative) WNPSH phase sometimes occurs during 1) a decaying El Nino (La Nina) in the preceding summer/autumn, and/or 2) a developing La Nina (El Nino) in the current summer/autumn. A full ENSO transition from moderate-to-strong El Nino to La Nina is often seen during the positive phase, offering potential in predicting ENSO events and extreme WNPSH phases and thereby the summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia.