Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.053 |
Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County | |
Burillo, Daniel1; Chester, Mikhail V.1; Pincetl, Stephanie2; Fournier, Eric2 | |
2019-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY
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ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 128页码:943-953 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Many studies have estimated the effects of rising air temperatures due to climate change on electricity infrastructure systems, but none have quantified impacts in terms of potential outages down to the neighborhood scale. Using high-resolution climate projections, infrastructure maps, and forecasts of peak electricity demand for Los Angeles County (LAC), we estimated vulnerabilities in the electricity infrastructure to 2060. We considered rising air temperatures under IPCC RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 at 2 km(2) grid cell resolution, two local government population growth scenarios, different efficiency implementations of new residential and commercial buildings, air conditioners (AC), and higher AC penetration. Results were that generators, substations, and transmission lines could lose up to 20% of safe operating capacities (MW). Moreover, based on recent historical load factors for substations in the Southern California Edison service territory, 848-6,724 MW (4-32%) of additional capacity, distributed energy resources, and/or peak load shifting could be needed by 2060 to avoid hardware overloading and outages. If peak load is not mitigated, and/or additional infrastructure capacity not added, then all scenarios result in > 100% substation overloading in Santa Clarita, which would trigger automatic outages, and > 20% substation overloading in at least Lancaster, Palmdale, and Pomona in which protection gear could trip outages within 30 min. Several climate change adaptation options are discussed for electricity infrastructure and building stock with consideration for trade-offs in system stability and other energy and environmental goals. |
英文关键词 | Electricity infrastructure Vulnerability assessment Capacity shortages Climate change Extreme heat Power outages |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000463688800088 |
WOS关键词 | THERMAL COMFORT ; ENERGY-CONSUMPTION ; IMPACTS ; SYSTEMS ; DEMAND ; EFFICIENCY ; BUILDINGS ; ADAPTATION ; GENERATION ; STATE |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182801 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Arizona State Univ, Dept Civil Environm & Sustainable Engn, 660S Coll Ave, Tempe, AZ 85281 USA; 2.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Burillo, Daniel,Chester, Mikhail V.,Pincetl, Stephanie,et al. Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2019,128:943-953. |
APA | Burillo, Daniel,Chester, Mikhail V.,Pincetl, Stephanie,&Fournier, Eric.(2019).Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County.ENERGY POLICY,128,943-953. |
MLA | Burillo, Daniel,et al."Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County".ENERGY POLICY 128(2019):943-953. |
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