GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.053
Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County
Burillo, Daniel1; Chester, Mikhail V.1; Pincetl, Stephanie2; Fournier, Eric2
2019-05-01
发表期刊ENERGY POLICY
ISSN0301-4215
EISSN1873-6777
出版年2019
卷号128页码:943-953
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Many studies have estimated the effects of rising air temperatures due to climate change on electricity infrastructure systems, but none have quantified impacts in terms of potential outages down to the neighborhood scale. Using high-resolution climate projections, infrastructure maps, and forecasts of peak electricity demand for Los Angeles County (LAC), we estimated vulnerabilities in the electricity infrastructure to 2060. We considered rising air temperatures under IPCC RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 at 2 km(2) grid cell resolution, two local government population growth scenarios, different efficiency implementations of new residential and commercial buildings, air conditioners (AC), and higher AC penetration. Results were that generators, substations, and transmission lines could lose up to 20% of safe operating capacities (MW). Moreover, based on recent historical load factors for substations in the Southern California Edison service territory, 848-6,724 MW (4-32%) of additional capacity, distributed energy resources, and/or peak load shifting could be needed by 2060 to avoid hardware overloading and outages. If peak load is not mitigated, and/or additional infrastructure capacity not added, then all scenarios result in > 100% substation overloading in Santa Clarita, which would trigger automatic outages, and > 20% substation overloading in at least Lancaster, Palmdale, and Pomona in which protection gear could trip outages within 30 min. Several climate change adaptation options are discussed for electricity infrastructure and building stock with consideration for trade-offs in system stability and other energy and environmental goals.


英文关键词Electricity infrastructure Vulnerability assessment Capacity shortages Climate change Extreme heat Power outages
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000463688800088
WOS关键词THERMAL COMFORT ; ENERGY-CONSUMPTION ; IMPACTS ; SYSTEMS ; DEMAND ; EFFICIENCY ; BUILDINGS ; ADAPTATION ; GENERATION ; STATE
WOS类目Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182801
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Arizona State Univ, Dept Civil Environm & Sustainable Engn, 660S Coll Ave, Tempe, AZ 85281 USA;
2.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA
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Burillo, Daniel,Chester, Mikhail V.,Pincetl, Stephanie,et al. Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2019,128:943-953.
APA Burillo, Daniel,Chester, Mikhail V.,Pincetl, Stephanie,&Fournier, Eric.(2019).Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County.ENERGY POLICY,128,943-953.
MLA Burillo, Daniel,et al."Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County".ENERGY POLICY 128(2019):943-953.
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