资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Climate change is one of the most relevant challenges faced by contemporary societies. The effects of climate variability emphasize the agricultural vulnerability of a location, especially through the dependence of agriculture on climatic factors. This work analyzed the impacts of climatic elements on sugarcane production for municipalities of the state of Paraiba, Brazil, from 1990 to 2015. We investigated how the behavior of climatic elements influenced each mesoregion. Through the production function, a regression with panel data was estimated using the pooled, fixed, and random effects models. To verify which model was most appropriate, the Chow, Hausman, Breusch-Pagan, and Wooldridge tests were performed. According to the tests, the most suitable model was the pooled model. The results showed the impacts of climatic parameters on sugarcane production in the municipalities of Paraiba state, Brazil. Rainfall was positively correlated with production, whereas the temperature negatively influenced production. A heterogeneous response of the impacts on the mesoregions was noted, with the municipalities belonging to the mesoregion of Mata Paraibana having a higher probability of producing sugarcane than other mesoregions.