Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02400-1 |
Modeling seasonal onset of coastal ice | |
Ji, Xialong1; Gronewold, Andrew D.2; Daher, Houraa3; Rood, Richard B.1 | |
2019-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 154页码:125-141 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | To support regional management planning decisions, and to protect human health and safety, we developed a new statistical model that simulates the onset of seasonal ice cover along the shoreline of a US National Park (the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore, or APIS). Our model encodes relationships between different modes of climate variability and regional ice cover from 1972 to 2015, and successfully simulates both the timing of ice onset and the probability that ice cover might form at all in a particular winter season. We simulate both of these endpoints using a novel combination of statistical hazard (or survival) and beta regression models. Our analysis of coastal ice cover along the APIS reinforces findings from previous research suggesting that the late 1990s signified a regime shift in climate conditions across North America. Before this period, coastal ice cover conditions at the APIS were often suitable for pedestrian access, while after this period coastal ice cover at the APIS has been highly variable. Our new model accommodates this regime shift, and provides a stepping stone towards a broad range of applications of similar models for supporting regional management decisions in light of evolving climate conditions. |
英文关键词 | Coastal ice Climate variability Statistical model Decision-making |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000469017400008 |
WOS关键词 | GREAT-LAKES REGION ; WINTER SEVERITY ; SEA-ICE ; EL-NINO ; VARIABILITY ; PACIFIC ; COVER ; TEMPERATURE ; REGRESSION ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182649 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA; 2.NOAA, Great Lakes Environm Res Lab, 2205 Commonwealth Blvd, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 USA; 3.Univ Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ji, Xialong,Gronewold, Andrew D.,Daher, Houraa,et al. Modeling seasonal onset of coastal ice[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,154:125-141. |
APA | Ji, Xialong,Gronewold, Andrew D.,Daher, Houraa,&Rood, Richard B..(2019).Modeling seasonal onset of coastal ice.CLIMATIC CHANGE,154,125-141. |
MLA | Ji, Xialong,et al."Modeling seasonal onset of coastal ice".CLIMATIC CHANGE 154(2019):125-141. |
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