GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4514-7
The role of anthropogenic aerosols in future precipitation extremes over the Asian Monsoon Region
Zhao, Alcide D.; Stevenson, David S.; Bollasina, Massimo A.
2019-05-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号52页码:6257-6278
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Scotland
英文摘要

The role of anthropogenic aerosols in future projections (up to 2100) of summertime precipitation and precipitation extremes over the Asian monsoon region is investigated, by comparing two sets of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) large ensemble simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5) and the corresponding scenario with aerosol fixed at 2005 levels (RCP8.5_FixA). The model is verified to be performing well in capturing present-day (1986-2005) climate and precipitation extremes. Our results suggest that the Asian monsoon region would become progressively warmer and wetter in the future under RCP8.5, while precipitation extremes will be significantly aggravated due to anthropogenic aerosol mitigation, particularly over East Asia. Specifically, aerosol reductions are found to shift the distribution of precipitation mean and extremes to larger values. For example, aerosol reductions would result in an increased likelihood of extreme precipitation (e.g. the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount) and related disasters. Sensitivities of changes in precipitation mean and extremes to local warming from aerosol reductions are much larger than that from greenhouse gas increases. This is particularly important over East Asia in accordance with larger magnitudes of aerosol reductions compared to South Asia. Finally, by investigating the response of the climate system to aerosol changes, our findings demonstrate that aerosol induced precipitation changes would be dominated by aerosol-radiation-cloud forcing over northern East Asia and aerosol forcing induced large-scale circulation anomalies over southern East and South Asia.


英文关键词Precipitation extremes Anthropogenic aerosols RCP8 5 Asian Summer Monsoon
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000465441400068
WOS关键词INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON ; CLIMATE EXTREMES ; UNITED-STATES ; CLOUD INTERACTIONS ; SPATIAL-PATTERNS ; HIGH-RESOLUTION ; SULFUR-DIOXIDE ; CHINA ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:55[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182644
专题气候变化
作者单位Univ Edinburgh, Sch GeoSci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
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Zhao, Alcide D.,Stevenson, David S.,Bollasina, Massimo A.. The role of anthropogenic aerosols in future precipitation extremes over the Asian Monsoon Region[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:6257-6278.
APA Zhao, Alcide D.,Stevenson, David S.,&Bollasina, Massimo A..(2019).The role of anthropogenic aerosols in future precipitation extremes over the Asian Monsoon Region.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,6257-6278.
MLA Zhao, Alcide D.,et al."The role of anthropogenic aerosols in future precipitation extremes over the Asian Monsoon Region".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):6257-6278.
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