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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4497-4 |
Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models | |
Bell, Samuel S.1; Chand, Savin S.1; Tory, Kevin J.2; Dowdy, Andrew J.2; Turville, Chris1; Ye, Harvey2 | |
2019-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:6065-6079 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | A recently validated algorithm for detecting and tracking tropical cyclones (TCs) in coarse resolution climate models was applied to a selected group of 12 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to assess potential changes in TC track characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) due to greenhouse warming. Current-climate simulations over the period 1970-2000 are first evaluated against observations using measures of TC genesis location and frequency, as well as track trajectory and lifetime in seven objectively defined genesis regions. The 12-model (12-M) ensemble showed substantial skill in reproducing a realistic TC climatology over the evaluation period. To address potential biases associated with model interdependency, analyses were repeated with an ensemble of five independent models (5-M). Results from both the 12-M and 5-M ensembles were very similar, instilling confidence in the models for climate projections if the current TC-climate relationship is to remain stationary. Projected changes in TC track density between the current- and future-climate (2070-2100) simulations under the Representatives Concentration 8.5 Pathways (RCP8.5) are also assessed. Overall, projection results showed a substantial decrease (1-3 per decade) in track density over most parts of the SH by the end of the twenty-first century. This decrease is attributed to a significant reduction in TC numbers (15-42%) consistent with changes in large-scale environmental parameters such as relative vorticity, environmental vertical wind shear and relative humidity. This study may assist with adaption pathways and implications for regional-scale climate change for vulnerable regions in the SH. |
英文关键词 | Tropical cyclone Track Southern hemisphere Model projection Climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000465441400056 |
WOS关键词 | WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC ; CLUSTER-ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE SYSTEM ; ATLANTIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182632 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Federat Univ Australia, Ctr Informat & Appl Optimizat, Ballarat, Vic 3357, Australia; 2.Bur Meteorol, Res & Dev Branch, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bell, Samuel S.,Chand, Savin S.,Tory, Kevin J.,et al. Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:6065-6079. |
APA | Bell, Samuel S.,Chand, Savin S.,Tory, Kevin J.,Dowdy, Andrew J.,Turville, Chris,&Ye, Harvey.(2019).Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,6065-6079. |
MLA | Bell, Samuel S.,et al."Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):6065-6079. |
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