Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4493-8 |
Future urban rainfall projections considering the impacts of climate change and urbanization with statistical-dynamical integrated approach | |
Shastri, Hiteshri1,2; Ghosh, Subimal1,3; Paul, Supantha1; Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein4; Helbich, Marco5; Karmakar, Subhankar1,6 | |
2019-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:6033-6051 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | India; Iran; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Impacts of global warming and local scale urbanization on precipitation are evident from observations; hence both must be considered in future projections of urban precipitation. Dynamic regional models at a fine spatial resolution can capture the signature of urbanization on precipitation, however simulations for multiple decades are computationally expensive. In contrast, statistical regional models are computationally inexpensive but incapable of assessing the impacts of urbanization due to the stationary relationship between predictors and predictand. This paper aims to develop a unique modelling framework with a demonstration for Mumbai, India, where future urbanization is projected using a Markov Chain Cellular Automata approach, long term projections with climate change impacts are performed using statistical downscaling and urban impacts are simulated with a dynamic regional model for limited number of years covering different precipitation characteristics. The evaluation of the statistical downscaling methodology over historical time period reveals large underestimation of the extreme rainfall, which is improved effectively by applying another regression model, for extreme days. The limited runs of dynamic downscaling models with different stages of urbanization for Mumbai, India, reveal spatially non uniform changes in precipitation, occurring primarily at the higher quantiles. The statistical and dynamical outputs are further integrated using quantile transformation for precipitation projection in Mumbai during 2050s. The projections show dominant impacts of urbanization compared to those from large scale changing patterns. The uniqueness of this computationally efficient framework lies in an integration of global and local factors for precipitation projections through a conjugal statistical-dynamical approach. |
英文关键词 | Precipitation downscaling Extreme precipitation Urbanization Mumbai India |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000465441400054 |
WOS关键词 | NONHYDROSTATIC ATMOSPHERIC MODEL ; LAND-COVER CHANGE ; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; SINGLE-LAYER ; DOWNSCALING TECHNIQUES ; EXTREME RAINFALL ; CANOPY MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATION ; WINTER |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182630 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Indian Inst Technol, Interdisciplinary Program Climate Studies, Mumbai 400076, Maharashtra, India; 2.Charotar Univ Sci & Technol, CS Patel Inst Technol, MS Patel Deartment Civil Engn, Anand, Gujarat, India; 3.Indian Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India; 4.Tarbiat Modares Univ, Dept GIS & Remote Sensing, Tehran, Iran; 5.Univ Utrecht, Dept Human Geog & Spatial Planning, Utrecht, Netherlands; 6.Indian Inst Technol, Ctr Environm Sci & Engn, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shastri, Hiteshri,Ghosh, Subimal,Paul, Supantha,et al. Future urban rainfall projections considering the impacts of climate change and urbanization with statistical-dynamical integrated approach[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:6033-6051. |
APA | Shastri, Hiteshri,Ghosh, Subimal,Paul, Supantha,Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein,Helbich, Marco,&Karmakar, Subhankar.(2019).Future urban rainfall projections considering the impacts of climate change and urbanization with statistical-dynamical integrated approach.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,6033-6051. |
MLA | Shastri, Hiteshri,et al."Future urban rainfall projections considering the impacts of climate change and urbanization with statistical-dynamical integrated approach".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):6033-6051. |
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