Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4484-9 |
Week 3-4 predictability over the United States assessed from two operational ensemble prediction systems | |
Wang, Lei1,2; Robertson, Andrew W.3 | |
2019-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:5861-5875 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | The subseasonal predictability of surface temperature and precipitation is examined using two global ensemble prediction systems (ECMWF VarEPS and NCEP CFSv2), with an emphasis on the week 3-4 lead (i.e. 15-28 days ahead) fortnight-average anomaly correlation skill over the United States, in each calendar season. Although the ECMWF system exhibits slightly higher skill for both temperature and precipitation in general, these two systems show similar geographical variations in the week 3-4 skill in all seasons and encouraging skill in certain regions. The regions of skill are then interpreted in terms of large-scale teleconnection patterns. Over the southwest US in summer, the North American monsoon system leads to higher skill in precipitation and surface temperature, while high skill over northern California in spring is found to be associated with the seasonal variability of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During winter, in particular, week 3-4 predictability is found to be higher during extreme phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific-North American (PNA)/Tropical-Northern Hemisphere mode, and AO/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Both forecast systems are found to predict these teleconnection indices quite skillfully, with the anomaly correlation of the wintertime NAO and PNA exceeding 0.5 for both models. In both models, the subseasonal contribution to the PNA skill is found to be larger than for the NAO, where the seasonal component is large. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000465441400044 |
WOS关键词 | AMERICAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; FORECAST SKILL ; SEASONAL FORECASTS ; VARIABILITY ; OSCILLATION ; ENSO ; PRECIPITATION ; WEATHER ; TELECONNECTION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182620 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, 2005 Songhu Rd, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China; 2.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA; 3.Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc IRI, Palisades, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Lei,Robertson, Andrew W.. Week 3-4 predictability over the United States assessed from two operational ensemble prediction systems[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:5861-5875. |
APA | Wang, Lei,&Robertson, Andrew W..(2019).Week 3-4 predictability over the United States assessed from two operational ensemble prediction systems.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,5861-5875. |
MLA | Wang, Lei,et al."Week 3-4 predictability over the United States assessed from two operational ensemble prediction systems".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):5861-5875. |
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