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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4449-z |
Skill of Indian summer monsoon rainfall prediction in multiple seasonal prediction systems | |
Jain, Shipra1,2; Scaife, Adam A.3,4; Mitra, Ashis K.1 | |
2019-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:5291-5301 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | India; England |
英文摘要 | We use seasonal forecasts from the Climate Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) to study the skill of multiple climate models in predicting Indian summer monsoon precipitation. The multi-model average of seasonal forecasts from eight prediction systems shows statistically significant skill for predicting Indian monsoon precipitation at seasonal lead times. Rapid convergence of tropical rainfall skill with ensemble size suggests that the skill of seasonal monsoon rainfall forecasts improves only marginally when using multi-model ensemble (MME) means as compared to the single most skillful system. There is also a large range in the skill of individual models. Some individual models show correlation skill as high as 0.6, which is similar to the MME mean, while others show low skill. We also investigate the effect of spatial averaging on the skill of predicting monsoon rainfall and show that the predictions averaged over a larger area than the verifying observations can yield higher skill due to the extended spatial coherence of monsoon rainfall variability. We also document current errors in seasonal prediction systems and show that these are more strongly related to the errors in El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections than they are to mean rainfall biases. Finally, we examine the ENSO-monsoon relationship and confirm that this relationship is likely to be stationary, despite fluctuations in the observed relationship, which can simply be explained as sampling variability on an underlying stationary teleconnection between ENSO and the Indian monsoon. |
英文关键词 | Climate Historical Forecasts Project (CHFP) Seasonal prediction Indian monsoon ENSO-monsoon teleconnection Seasonal hindcasts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000465441400013 |
WOS关键词 | INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; CLIMATE SIMULATION ; PREDICTABILITY ; ENSEMBLE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182589 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Minist Earth Sci, Natl Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida 201309, Uttar Pradesh, India; 2.IITD, CAS, New Delhi 110016, India; 3.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Fitz Roy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England; 4.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jain, Shipra,Scaife, Adam A.,Mitra, Ashis K.. Skill of Indian summer monsoon rainfall prediction in multiple seasonal prediction systems[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:5291-5301. |
APA | Jain, Shipra,Scaife, Adam A.,&Mitra, Ashis K..(2019).Skill of Indian summer monsoon rainfall prediction in multiple seasonal prediction systems.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,5291-5301. |
MLA | Jain, Shipra,et al."Skill of Indian summer monsoon rainfall prediction in multiple seasonal prediction systems".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):5291-5301. |
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