Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL082812 |
The Influence of Tropical Forecast Errors on Higher Latitude Predictions | |
Dias, Juliana1,2; Kiladis, George N.2 | |
2019-04-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:8页码:4450-4459 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The atmospheric response to variations in tropical latent heating extends well beyond its source region, and therefore it is thought that a reduction of tropical forecast errors should also benefit subsequent forecasts over the extratropics. This relationship is evaluated using a conditional skill analysis applied to subseasonal reforecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Coupled Forecast System and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System. It is shown that there is enhanced or attenuated skill in Northern Hemisphere Weeks 2-4 forecasts when tropical short range precipitation forecasts are "good" or "poor," respectively. This conditional skill is modulated by both El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Madden and Julian Oscillation, particularly in the Integrated Forecast System. The results presented here indicate that midlatitude Weeks 2-4 predictive skill would benefit from improvements in Week 1 tropical performance, particularly for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction system. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000467949200042 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; COUPLED EQUATORIAL WAVES ; NORTH PACIFIC ; CIRCULATION ; WEATHER ; SKILL ; PREDICTABILITY ; EXTRATROPICS ; VARIABILITY ; MODULATION |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182529 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 2.NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO 08540 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dias, Juliana,Kiladis, George N.. The Influence of Tropical Forecast Errors on Higher Latitude Predictions[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(8):4450-4459. |
APA | Dias, Juliana,&Kiladis, George N..(2019).The Influence of Tropical Forecast Errors on Higher Latitude Predictions.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(8),4450-4459. |
MLA | Dias, Juliana,et al."The Influence of Tropical Forecast Errors on Higher Latitude Predictions".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.8(2019):4450-4459. |
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