资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Climate change intensifies the Earth's hydrologic cycle, which has far-reaching consequences including water availability, agricultural production, and electric power generation. The rate of intensification projected by state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) with increasing greenhouse gas emissions, however, is highly uncertain. Thackeray et al. (2018, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079698) show that these uncertainties are related to how GCMs distribute future precipitation by either strongly increasing extreme precipitation at the cost of nonextreme events or by increasing nonextreme precipitation at the cost of extreme precipitation events. These results could help to constrain uncertainties in future hydrologic cycle intensification, thereby improving our understanding of future water resource availability and extreme hydrologic events.