Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JAS-D-18-0181.1 |
On the Relative Sensitivity of a Tropical Deep Convective Storm to Changes in Environment and Cloud Microphysical Parameters | |
Posselt, Derek J.1; He, Fei2; Bukowski, Jennifer3; Reid, Jeffrey S.4 | |
2019-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES |
ISSN | 0022-4928 |
EISSN | 1520-0469 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 76期号:4页码:1163-1185 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Monte Carlo and Morris screening techniques are used to examine the relative sensitivity of deep convective simulations to changes in initial conditions (IC) versus changes to microphysical parameters (MP). IC are perturbed using a set of empirical orthogonal function-principal component pairs obtained from a database of tropical soundings, while MP are perturbed consistent with their range of realistic values. Monte Carlo experiments provide a broad overview of parameter-output response, while Morris screening techniques identify the most significant influences on specific model output variables. Changes to MP produce a similar order-of-magnitude response in convective hydrologic cycle, dynamics, and latent heating as changes to IC. Changes in IC appear to have a larger effect on radiative fluxes than perturbations to MP. The distribution of low-level latent heating reveals that changes in MP have a larger influence on cold pool properties than changes to the environment. The dominant effects are produced by a subset of cloud MP and thermodynamic structure functions, indicating perturbation of a subset of the control factors may be used to produce most of the variability in a short-term convective-scale ensemble forecast. The most influential MP are the autoconversion threshold, the rain particle size distribution intercept, and the ice particle fall speed parameters. The most influential EOFs are those that correspond to variability in lower- to midtropospheric temperature and water vapor, as well as zonal low-level shear. The results have implications for both the understanding of what influences convective development and the design of ensemble-based prediction and data assimilation systems. |
英文关键词 | Deep convection Cloud microphysics Sensitivity studies Cloud parameterizations Data assimilation Ensembles |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000466438700001 |
WOS关键词 | VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ; COLUMN WATER-VAPOR ; PART I ; CUMULUS-ENSEMBLE ; RESOLVING MODEL ; RADAR OBSERVATIONS ; SURFACE PROCESSES ; MOIST CONVECTION ; TRMM LBA ; PRECIPITATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182162 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA; 2.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA; 3.Colorado State Univ, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 4.US Navy, Res Lab, Monterey, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Posselt, Derek J.,He, Fei,Bukowski, Jennifer,et al. On the Relative Sensitivity of a Tropical Deep Convective Storm to Changes in Environment and Cloud Microphysical Parameters[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2019,76(4):1163-1185. |
APA | Posselt, Derek J.,He, Fei,Bukowski, Jennifer,&Reid, Jeffrey S..(2019).On the Relative Sensitivity of a Tropical Deep Convective Storm to Changes in Environment and Cloud Microphysical Parameters.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,76(4),1163-1185. |
MLA | Posselt, Derek J.,et al."On the Relative Sensitivity of a Tropical Deep Convective Storm to Changes in Environment and Cloud Microphysical Parameters".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 76.4(2019):1163-1185. |
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