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DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.053 |
Battery electric vehicles: Looking behind to move forward | |
Safari, M.1,2 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 115页码:54-65 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Belgium |
英文摘要 | It is getting increasingly crucial for policymakers to acquire reliable price forecasts for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to make choices and set priorities. Here, we examine the prospects for the wide deployment of BEVs, following an ex-post analysis of their learning rate and an ex-ante forecast of their price up to 2040. We make a clear distinction between the mainstream of BEVs and a hypothetical group of BEVs that are technically on a par with internal combustion vehicles (ICVs). To do so, we introduce a new index, in which the driving range and max-speed of a vehicle are coupled together, i.e., the Mobility-Diffusion coefficient. We highlight different shares of battery packs (i.e., 19 +/- 1%), and the ensemble of electrification components (e.g., battery pack, electric motor, power electronics), i.e., electrification cost (52 +/- 2%), in the price of a BEV. Our price projections suggest that there is no prospect of breakeven between BEVs and ICVs before 2040 for both groups of BEVs, because the current learning rates of 9 +/- 2% and 15 +/- 1% for the price and electrification costs, respectively, of BEVs. Strong and long-term support from policymakers is required to ensure competitiveness of BEVs with ICVs in the near future. |
英文关键词 | Battery-electric vehicle Learning rate Electrification cost |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428099800006 |
WOS关键词 | LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES ; ENERGY-STORAGE ; COST ; ELECTRIFICATION ; TRANSPORTATION ; PERFORMANCE ; CHEMISTRY ; BARRIERS ; FUTURE ; LIMITS |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/18213 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Hasselt Univ, Inst Mat Res IMO, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium; 2.IMEC, Div IMOMEC, Wetenschapspk 1, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Safari, M.. Battery electric vehicles: Looking behind to move forward[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,115:54-65. |
APA | Safari, M..(2018).Battery electric vehicles: Looking behind to move forward.ENERGY POLICY,115,54-65. |
MLA | Safari, M.."Battery electric vehicles: Looking behind to move forward".ENERGY POLICY 115(2018):54-65. |
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