Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab0770 |
Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach | |
Haer, Toon1,2; Botzen, W. J. Wouter1,3,4; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.1,2 | |
2019-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands; USA |
英文摘要 | Recent floods in the United States and Asia again highlighted their devastating effects, and without investments in adaptation, the future impact of floods will continue to increase. Key to making accurate flood-risk projections are assessments of how disaster-risk reduction (DRR) measures reduce risk and how much risk remains after adaptation. Current flood-risk-assessment models are ill-equipped to address this, as they assume a static adaptation path, implying that vulnerability will remain constant. We present a multi-disciplinary approach that integrates different types of adaptive behaviour of governments (proactive and reactive) and households (rational and boundedly rational) in a continental-scale risk-assessment framework for river flooding in the European Union. Our methodology demonstrates how flood risk and adaptation might develop, indicates how DRR policies can steer decisions towards optimal behaviour, and indicates how much residual risk remains that has to be covered by risk-transfer mechanisms. We find that the increase in flood risk due to climate change may be largely offset by adaptation decisions. Moreover, we illustrate that adaptation by households may be more influential for risk reduction than government protection in the short term. The results highlight the importance of integrating behavioural methods from social sciences with quantitative models from the natural sciences, as advocated by both fields. |
英文关键词 | adaptation flood risk agent-based models |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000464203100007 |
WOS关键词 | FLOOD RISK ; SOCIO-HYDROLOGY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RIVER FLOODS ; PROTECTION ; BENEFITS ; REDUCTION ; INSURANCE ; FRAMEWORK ; COSTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182049 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands; 2.Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; 3.Univ Utrecht, Utrecht Univ Sch Econ USE, NL-3584 EC Utrecht, Netherlands; 4.Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Risk Management & Decis Proc Ctr, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Haer, Toon,Botzen, W. J. Wouter,Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.. Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(4). |
APA | Haer, Toon,Botzen, W. J. Wouter,&Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H..(2019).Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(4). |
MLA | Haer, Toon,et al."Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.4(2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论