Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab08a9 |
Climate and carbon budget implications of linked future changes in CO2 and non-CO2 forcing | |
Feijoo, Felipe1,2; Mignone, Bryan K.3; Kheshgi, Haroon S.3; Hartin, Corinne2; McJeon, Haewon2; Edmonds, Jae2 | |
2019-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
![]() |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Chile; USA |
英文摘要 | The approximate proportional relationship between cumulative carbon emissions and instantaneous global temperature rise (the carbon budget approximation) has proven to be a useful concept to translate policy-relevant temperature objectives into CO2 emissions pathways. However, when non-CO2 forcing is changing along with CO2 forcing, errors in the approximation increases. Using the GCAM model to produce an ensemble of similar to 3000 scenarios, we show that linked changes in CO2 forcing, aerosol forcing, and non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing lead to an increase in total non-CO2 forcing over the 21st century across mitigation scenarios. This increase causes the relationship between instantaneous temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions to become more complex than the proportional approximation often assumed, particularly for low temperature objectives such as 1.5 degrees C. The same linked changes in emissions also contribute to a near-term increase in aerosol forcing that effectively places a limit on how low peak temperature could be constrained through GHG mitigation alone. In particular, we find that 23% of scenarios that include CCS (but only 1% of scenarios that do not include CCS) achieve a temperature objective of 1.5 degrees C without temperature overshoot. |
英文关键词 | carbon budget non-CO2 cumulative carbon emissions global temperature radiative forcing |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000462895800003 |
WOS关键词 | EMISSIONS ; MITIGATION ; CONSISTENT ; TARGETS ; PATHWAY ; POLICY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182042 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Pontificia Univ Catolica Valparaiso, Sch Ind Engn, Valparaiso, Chile; 2.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 3.ExxonMobil Res & Engn Co, Annandale, NJ 08801 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Feijoo, Felipe,Mignone, Bryan K.,Kheshgi, Haroon S.,et al. Climate and carbon budget implications of linked future changes in CO2 and non-CO2 forcing[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(4). |
APA | Feijoo, Felipe,Mignone, Bryan K.,Kheshgi, Haroon S.,Hartin, Corinne,McJeon, Haewon,&Edmonds, Jae.(2019).Climate and carbon budget implications of linked future changes in CO2 and non-CO2 forcing.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(4). |
MLA | Feijoo, Felipe,et al."Climate and carbon budget implications of linked future changes in CO2 and non-CO2 forcing".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.4(2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论