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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4395-9 |
On memory and non-memory parts of surface air temperatures over China: can they be simulated by decadal hindcast experiments in CMIP5? | |
Xiong, Feilin1; Yuan, Naiming2; Ma, Xiaoyan1; Lu, Zhenghui2; Gao, Jinhui1 | |
2019-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:4515-4525 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | It has been well recognized that, for most climatic records, their current states are influenced by both past conditions and current dynamical excitations. However, how to properly use this idea to improve the climate predictive skills, is still an open question. In this study, we evaluated the decadal hindcast experiments of 11 models (participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP5) in simulating the effects of past conditions (memory part, M(t)) and the current dynamical excitations (non-memory part, epsilon(t)). Poor skills in simulating the memory part of surface air temperatures (SAT) are found in all the considered models. Over most regions of China, the CMIP5 models significantly overestimated the long-term memory (LTM) of SAT. While in the southwest, the LTM was significantly underestimated. After removing the biased memory part from the simulations using fractional integral statistical model (FISM), the remaining non-memory part, however, was found reasonably simulated in the multi-model means. On annual scale, there were high correlations between the simulated and the observed epsilon(t) over most regions of the country, and for most cases they had the same sign. These findings indicated that the current errors of dynamical models may be partly due to the unrealistic simulations of the impacts from the past. To improve predictive skills, a new strategy was thus suggested. As FISM is capable of extracting M(t) quantitatively, by combining FISM with dynamical models (which may produce reasonable estimations of epsilon(t)), improved climate predictions with the effects of past conditions properly considered may become possible. |
英文关键词 | Long-term memory Memory part Non-memory part CMIP5 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000467187600040 |
WOS关键词 | LONG-RANGE CORRELATIONS ; SCALING BEHAVIORS ; TERM PERSISTENCE ; PRECIPITATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; DEPENDENCE ; WEATHER ; TRENDS ; LAW |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181910 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change ILCEC, Key Lab Aerosol Cloud Precipitat,CIC FEMD, China Meteorol Adm,Minist Educ KLME,Key Lab Meteo, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, CAS Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Temperate East A, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xiong, Feilin,Yuan, Naiming,Ma, Xiaoyan,et al. On memory and non-memory parts of surface air temperatures over China: can they be simulated by decadal hindcast experiments in CMIP5?[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:4515-4525. |
APA | Xiong, Feilin,Yuan, Naiming,Ma, Xiaoyan,Lu, Zhenghui,&Gao, Jinhui.(2019).On memory and non-memory parts of surface air temperatures over China: can they be simulated by decadal hindcast experiments in CMIP5?.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,4515-4525. |
MLA | Xiong, Feilin,et al."On memory and non-memory parts of surface air temperatures over China: can they be simulated by decadal hindcast experiments in CMIP5?".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):4515-4525. |
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