Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4385-y |
Is the Last Glacial Maximum a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes in the Americas? | |
Lowry, Daniel P.1; Morrill, Carrie2,3 | |
2019-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:4407-4427 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | New Zealand; USA |
英文摘要 | Future hydroclimate change is expected to generally follow a wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier (WWDD) pattern, yet key uncertainties remain regionally and over land. It has been previously hypothesized that lake levels of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) could map a reverse analog to future hydroclimate changes due to reduction of CO2 levels at this time. Potential complications to this approach include, however, the confounding effects of factors such as the Laurentide Ice Sheet and lake evaporation changes. Using the ensemble output of six coupled climate models, lake energy and water balance models, an atmospheric moisture budget analysis, and additional CO2 sensitivity experiments, we assess the effectiveness of the LGM as a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes for a transect from the drylands of North America to southern South America. The model ensemble successfully simulates the general pattern of lower tropical lake levels and higher extratropical lake levels at LGM, matching 82% of the lake proxy records. The greatest model-data mismatch occurs in tropical and extratropical South America, potentially as a result of underestimated changes in temperature and surface evaporation. Thermodynamic processes of the mean circulation best explain the direction of lake changes observed in the proxy record, particularly in the tropics and Pacific coasts of the extratropics, and produce a WWDD pattern. CO2 forcing alone cannot account for LGM lake level changes, however, as the enhanced cooling from the Laurentide ice sheet appears necessary to generate LGM dry anomalies in the tropics and to deepen anomalies in the extratropics. LGM performance as a reverse analog is regionally dependent as anti-correlation between LGM and future P-E is not uniformly observed across the study domain. |
英文关键词 | Lake status Atmospheric moisture budget Lake forward model Future climate projections Precipitation-evaporation Runoff |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000467187600034 |
WOS关键词 | LATE-QUATERNARY VEGETATION ; LAKE-LEVEL OSCILLATIONS ; WESTERN NORTH-AMERICA ; UPPER KLAMATH LAKE ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LONG-TERM ; PALEOCLIMATIC SIGNIFICANCE ; PRECIPITATION CHANGE ; CENTRAL KENTUCKY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181904 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Victoria Univ Wellington, Sch Geog Environm & Earth Sci, Wellington 6012, New Zealand; 2.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 3.NOAA, Natl Ctr Environm Informat, Boulder, CO 80305 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lowry, Daniel P.,Morrill, Carrie. Is the Last Glacial Maximum a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes in the Americas?[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:4407-4427. |
APA | Lowry, Daniel P.,&Morrill, Carrie.(2019).Is the Last Glacial Maximum a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes in the Americas?.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,4407-4427. |
MLA | Lowry, Daniel P.,et al."Is the Last Glacial Maximum a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes in the Americas?".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):4407-4427. |
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