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DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4355-4
Quantifying the agreement between observed and simulated extratropical modes of interannual variability
Lee, Jiwoo; Sperber, Kenneth R.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Bonfils, Celine J. W.; Taylor, Karl E.
2019-04-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号52页码:4057-4089
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Using historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) and multiple observationally-based datasets, we employ skill metrics to analyze the fidelity of the simulated Northern Annular Mode, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific North America pattern, the Southern Annular Mode, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Pacific Oscillation, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. We assess the benefits of a unified approach to evaluate these modes of variability, which we call the common basis function (CBF) approach, based on projecting model anomalies onto observed empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). The CBF approach circumvents issues with conventional EOF analysis, eliminating, for example, corrections of arbitrarily assigned, but inconsistent, signs of the EOF's/PC's being compared. It also avoids the problem that sometimes the first observed EOF is more similar to a higher order model EOF, particularly if the simulated EOFs are not well separated. Compared to conventional EOF analysis of models, the CBF approach indicates that models compare significantly better with observations in terms of pattern correlation and root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) than heretofore suggested. In many cases, models are doing a credible job at capturing the observationally-based estimates of patterns; however, errors in simulated amplitudes can be large and more egregious than pattern errors. In the context of the broad distribution of errors in the CMIP5 ensemble, sensitivity tests demonstrate that our results are relatively insensitive to methodological considerations (CBF vs. conventional approach), observational uncertainties in pattern (as determined by using multiple datasets), and internal variability (when multiple realizations from the same model are compared). The skill metrics proposed in this study can provide a useful summary of the ability of models to reproduce the observed EOF patterns and amplitudes. Additionally, the skill metrics can be used as a tool to objectively highlight where potential model improvements might be made. We advocate more systematic and objective testing of simulated extratropical variability, especially during the non-dominant seasons of each mode, when many models are performing relatively poorly.


英文关键词CMIP5 model evaluation Modes of variability EOF Metrics Common basis function
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000467187600016
WOS关键词NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTIONS ; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION ; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY ; SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE ; ANNULAR MODE ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; ARCTIC OSCILLATION ; HISTORICAL SIMULATIONS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181886
专题气候变化
作者单位LLNL, PCMDI, L-103,POB 808, Livermore, CA 94551 USA
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Lee, Jiwoo,Sperber, Kenneth R.,Gleckler, Peter J.,et al. Quantifying the agreement between observed and simulated extratropical modes of interannual variability[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:4057-4089.
APA Lee, Jiwoo,Sperber, Kenneth R.,Gleckler, Peter J.,Bonfils, Celine J. W.,&Taylor, Karl E..(2019).Quantifying the agreement between observed and simulated extratropical modes of interannual variability.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,4057-4089.
MLA Lee, Jiwoo,et al."Quantifying the agreement between observed and simulated extratropical modes of interannual variability".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):4057-4089.
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