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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5943 |
A new statistical correction strategy to improve long-term dynamical prediction | |
Lee, Joonlee; Ahn, Joong-Bae | |
2019-03-30 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 39期号:4页码:2173-2185 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea |
英文摘要 | In this study, a new statistical strategy to improve the long-term prediction skill of a numerical model was developed. This new strategy begins by finding the major principal time series (PTs) in the observations using the self-organizing map (SOM) method. Next, values at the model grid points that are highly correlated with the observational PTs for each ensemble member (EM) are combined to yield a modelled PT. Finally, the model prediction is corrected using the model PTs from the previous step. As the predictors for correction are objectively selected from among the signals found in model prediction, automatically considering their statistical correlation with predictands, the correction strategy is relatively free from the problem of selecting the proper predictor compared to conventional statistical correction methods. In addition, SOM shows a better performance in classifying non-linear complex patterns than conventional data analysis methods, while both SOM and conventional methods such as the empirical orthogonal function show a comparable performance when classifying linear patterns. The new strategy is applied to the 12-month-lead sea surface temperatures hindcasted by the Pusan National University coupled general circulation model. After correction using the new strategy, temporal correlation coefficients and the hit rate are increased while normalized root mean square errors and the false alarm rate are decreased for each season and each lead time. The correction becomes more effective as the lead time increases. In particular, this correction effect is large over the region where the prediction skill without correction is apparently low, which implies that the biases leading to poor prediction skills are effectively reduced by the new strategy. Additionally, the prediction skill is steadily improved for all lead times as the number of EMs is increased, whereas it reaches a plateau when the number of neurons in the output layer of the SOM method exceeds a certain threshold. |
英文关键词 | bias correction coupled general circulation model model output statistic Self-organizing map method |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000465456400024 |
WOS关键词 | SELF-ORGANIZING MAP ; SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE ; WEST FLORIDA SHELF ; SYSTEMATIC-ERROR ; SEASONAL PREDICTION ; GENETIC ALGORITHM ; INITIAL CONDITION ; CLIMATE ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181833 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Pusan Natl Univ, Climate Predict Lab, Div Earth Environm Syst, Atmospher Sci, Busan 609735, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lee, Joonlee,Ahn, Joong-Bae. A new statistical correction strategy to improve long-term dynamical prediction[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019,39(4):2173-2185. |
APA | Lee, Joonlee,&Ahn, Joong-Bae.(2019).A new statistical correction strategy to improve long-term dynamical prediction.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(4),2173-2185. |
MLA | Lee, Joonlee,et al."A new statistical correction strategy to improve long-term dynamical prediction".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.4(2019):2173-2185. |
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