GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2018GL081633
Causal Links on Interannual Timescale Between ENSO and the IOD in CMIP5 Future Simulations
Thanh Le1,2; Bae, Deg-Hyo1,2
2019-03-16
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2019
卷号46期号:5页码:2820-2828
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家South Korea
英文摘要

Here we investigate the causal links of interannual variability between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) RCP8.5 future simulations. The analyses account for possible simultaneous impacts of the southern annular mode and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall on future ENSO-IOD connection. We found robust causal influence of ENSO on IOD for majority (14/22) of models. ENSO variations cause changes of tropical Indian Ocean zonal wind and sea surface temperature and thus directly influence IOD. However, the specific mechanisms of this impact remain elusive in multimodel point of view. The results show significant impact of IOD on ENSO in the 2006-2100 period for 10/22 models. These results suggest that ENSO influence on IOD is slightly more robust than vice versa. We emphasize the uncertainty in the two-way future causal relationship between ENSO and IOD.


Plain Language Summary The global climate is influenced by several major climate modes, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In the present study, we investigate the future connection between ENSO and the IOD as understanding their relationship is important for future climate extreme predictions in and around Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. We used data from 22 different climate model simulations for the 2006-2100 period. The results indicate significant impact of the IOD on ENSO in 10/22 models, while the influence of ENSO on the IOD is found in 14/22 models. This study allows us to gain insight into the future relationship between ENSO and the IOD, as well as understanding the consistency of climate models in simulating the links between these two climate modes.


英文关键词ENSO IOD CMIP5 Granger causality SAM ISMR
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000462612900054
WOS关键词INDIAN-OCEAN DIPOLE ; ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS ; EL-NINO ; VARIABILITY ; MODE ; RAINFALL ; DYNAMICS ; FEEDBACK ; EVENTS ; IMPACT
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181644
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Sejong Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seoul, South Korea;
2.Sejong Univ, Ctr Climate Change Adaptat Water Resources, Seoul, South Korea
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Thanh Le,Bae, Deg-Hyo. Causal Links on Interannual Timescale Between ENSO and the IOD in CMIP5 Future Simulations[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(5):2820-2828.
APA Thanh Le,&Bae, Deg-Hyo.(2019).Causal Links on Interannual Timescale Between ENSO and the IOD in CMIP5 Future Simulations.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(5),2820-2828.
MLA Thanh Le,et al."Causal Links on Interannual Timescale Between ENSO and the IOD in CMIP5 Future Simulations".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.5(2019):2820-2828.
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