Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.11.010 |
Modeling uncertainty in estimation of carbon dioxide abatement costs of energy-saving technologies for passenger cars in China | |
Peng, Bin-Bin1,2; Xu, Jin-Hua2; Fan, Ying3 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 113页码:306-319 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Estimation of carbon dioxide abatement cost is of the essence to promote energy-saving technologies (ESTs) in the passenger car sector, while the existence of various uncertainties of abatement cost may be major barriers for technology promotion. This study establishes the projected marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve of China's passenger car sector over the 2016-2030 period and conducts uncertainty modeling through Monte Carlo simulation. The impacts of uncertainties from oil price, electricity cost, energy-saving potential, incremental investment cost, and emission factor for electricity consumption on emission abatement costs of ESTs are analyzed separately and compared together. Results show that among the five uncertainties, oil price uncertainty has the largest impact on ESTs' emission abatement cost, but the impact does not differ significantly among different technology bundles. Uncertainties in electricity cost and in electricity emission factor affect significantly the MACs of new-energy paths. Compared with the above two uncertainties, uncertainties in energy-saving potential and in incremental investment cost have larger impacts on the MACs of traditional energy-saving paths. Among different vehicle types, the MACs of ESTs on small-displacement private cars are the least affected by various uncertainties. |
英文关键词 | Passenger car sector Energy-saving technology Marginal abatement cost curve Uncertainty modeling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423009500029 |
WOS关键词 | EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT ; CEMENT INDUSTRY ; CURVES ; TRANSPORT ; REDUCTION ; EMISSIONS ; OPPORTUNITIES ; POTENTIALS ; INNOVATION ; IRON |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/18158 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Inst Sci & Dev, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China; 3.Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Peng, Bin-Bin,Xu, Jin-Hua,Fan, Ying. Modeling uncertainty in estimation of carbon dioxide abatement costs of energy-saving technologies for passenger cars in China[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,113:306-319. |
APA | Peng, Bin-Bin,Xu, Jin-Hua,&Fan, Ying.(2018).Modeling uncertainty in estimation of carbon dioxide abatement costs of energy-saving technologies for passenger cars in China.ENERGY POLICY,113,306-319. |
MLA | Peng, Bin-Bin,et al."Modeling uncertainty in estimation of carbon dioxide abatement costs of energy-saving technologies for passenger cars in China".ENERGY POLICY 113(2018):306-319. |
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