资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Carbon tax is regarded as a useful policy instrument to achieve the environmental target efficiently. However, the effect of regional unbalanced carbon tax is still unknown. In this study, an improved two-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is developed to fill this research gap with Liaoning Province and the rest of China (ROC) as the study area. Business as usual (BaU) and nine carbon tax scenarios are designed. Results show that in 2030, the highest carbon tax of 221 USD/ton-CO2 in taxC4P8 scenario in Liaoning province will lead to carbon reduction of 44.92% with the cost of 5.54% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss. Price effect and scale effect are the two mechanisms that affect the changes in GDP, industrial output and CO2 emissions. Industrial structure, energy consumption and carbon intensity of Liaoning are overwhelmingly affected by the price effect. Most less energy-intensive industries belong to the winner industries due to the higher influence of domestic market. By contrast, loser industries, including most of the energy-intensive industries, are mainly affected by the changes of provincial and international markets. ROC region is mainly affected by the price effect. Suggestions about preferential developmental industries are offered to balance the environmental and economic concerns.