Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.01.009 |
Social and biophysical determinants of future forest conditions in New England: Effects of a modern land-use regime | |
Duveneck, Matthew J.1,2; Thompson, Jonathan R.1 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
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ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 55页码:115-129 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The future forests of eastern North America will be shaped by at least three broad drivers: (i) vegetation change and natural disturbance patterns associated with the protracted recovery following colonial era land use, (ii) a changing climate, and (iii) a land-use regime that consists of geographically variable rates and intensities of forest harvesting, clearing for development, and land protection. We evaluated the aggregate and relative importance of these factors for the future forests of New England, USA by simulating a continuation of the recent trends in these drivers for fifty-years, nominally spanning 2010 to 2060. The models explicitly incorporate the modern distribution of tree species and the geographical variation in climate and land-use change. Using a cellular land-cover change model in combination with a physiologically-based forest landscape model, we conducted a factorial simulation experiment to assess changes in aboveground carbon (AGC) and forest composition. In the control scenario that simulates a hypothetical absence of any future land use or future climate change, the simulated landscape experienced large increases in average AGC-an increase of 53% from 2010 to 2060 (from 4.2 to 6.3 kg m(-2)). By 2060, climate change increased AGC stores by 8% relative to the control while the land-use regime reduced AGC by 16%. Among land uses, timber harvesting had a larger effect on AGC storage and changes in tree composition than did forest conversion to non-forest uses, with the most pronounced impacts observed on private corporate-owned land in northern New England. Our results demonstrate a large difference between the landscape's potential to store carbon and the landscape's current trajectory, assuming a continuation of the modem land-use regime. They also reveal aspects of the land-use regime that will have a disproportionate impact on the ability of the landscape to store carbon in the future, such as harvest regimes on corporate-owned lands. This information will help policy-makers and land managers evaluate trade-offs between commodity production and mitigating climate change through forest carbon storage. |
英文关键词 | DINAMICA LANDIS-II New England Disturbance Climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000463982000011 |
WOS关键词 | UNITED-STATES ; LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS ; COVER CHANGE ; WATER YIELD ; CLIMATE ; MANAGEMENT ; CONSERVATION ; BIODIVERSITY ; SIMULATION ; CHALLENGES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181532 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Harvard Univ, Harvard Forest, Petersham, MA 01366 USA; 2.New England Conservatory, Boston, MA 02115 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Duveneck, Matthew J.,Thompson, Jonathan R.. Social and biophysical determinants of future forest conditions in New England: Effects of a modern land-use regime[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2019,55:115-129. |
APA | Duveneck, Matthew J.,&Thompson, Jonathan R..(2019).Social and biophysical determinants of future forest conditions in New England: Effects of a modern land-use regime.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,55,115-129. |
MLA | Duveneck, Matthew J.,et al."Social and biophysical determinants of future forest conditions in New England: Effects of a modern land-use regime".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 55(2019):115-129. |
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