Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2355-3 |
How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation | |
Raso, Luciano1; Kwakkel, Jan1; Timmermans, Jos1; Panthou, Geremy2 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 153页码:267-283 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands; France |
英文摘要 | Adaptive policies have emerged as a valuable strategy for dealing with uncertainties by recognising the capacity of systems to adapt over time to new circumstances and surprises. The efficacy of adaptive policies hinges on detecting on-going change and ensuring that actions are indeed taken if and when necessary. This is operationalised by including a monitoring system composed of signposts and triggers in the design of the plan. A well-designed monitoring system is indispensable for the effective implementation of adaptive policies. Despite the importance of monitoring for adaptive policies, the present literature has not considered criteria enabling the a-priori evaluation of the efficacy of signposts. In this paper, we introduce criteria for the evaluation of individual signposts and the monitoring system as a whole. These criteria are relevance, observability, completeness, and parsimony. These criteria are intended to enhance the capacity to detect the need for adaptation in the presence of noisy and ambiguous observations of the real system. The criteria are identified from an analysis of the information chain, from system observations to policy success, focusing on how data becomes information. We illustrate how models, in particular, the combined use of stochastic and exploratory modelling can be used to assess individual signposts, and the whole monitoring system according to these criteria. This analysis provides significant insight into critical factors that may hinder learning from data. The proposed criteria are demonstrated using a hypothetical case, in which a monitoring system for a flood protection policy in the Niger River is designed and tested. |
英文关键词 | Monitoring Climate change Adaptive policies Dynamic adaptive policy pathways Signposts Evidence based Monitoring Information Flood management Extremes Deep uncertainty Niger River |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000463783300018 |
WOS关键词 | ROBUST DECISION-MAKING ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; REAL OPTIONS ; ADAPTATION ; PATHWAYS ; MANAGEMENT ; EXTREMES ; RISKS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181510 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Delft Univ Technol, Jaffalaan 5, NL-2628 BX Delft, Netherlands; 2.Univ Grenoble Alpes, F-38058 Grenoble 9, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Raso, Luciano,Kwakkel, Jan,Timmermans, Jos,et al. How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,153:267-283. |
APA | Raso, Luciano,Kwakkel, Jan,Timmermans, Jos,&Panthou, Geremy.(2019).How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation.CLIMATIC CHANGE,153,267-283. |
MLA | Raso, Luciano,et al."How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation".CLIMATIC CHANGE 153(2019):267-283. |
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